A.L. 2009

The seasons are shifting. Cold things are becoming warm. Cool things are becoming hot and uncool things are becoming cool. It all means so much (and nothing at all), far more than I can comprehend. One thing I do know is that it's time for my little annual tradition of predicting the 2009 baseball season.

Fair warning: These predictions will be so accurate it will question the notion of linear time. You might feel high, light-headed, bewildered, ecstatic. Your friends will say that there's something different about you. You will say that there's something different about you. The world will make loads more sense, except around certain people. You may find yourself suddenly interested in the following things: Jesus, leeks, trampolines, Saturn (the planet), the color maroon, Bugs Bunny, Saturn (the Roman god), fractals, atomic structure, wolves, rice, Tibet, Tibet Sprague, crop circles, afternoon television, features shared by more than one person, and gold, to name a few.

There are only three rules: The Mets win, I am right, and there are no rules.

Now without further ado:

The A.L. East
Oh dear oh dear oh dear, what to do here. The consensus 4th place team (the bluebirds of happiness) would at least contend in any other division. Last year's cinderella gets to keep the dress, the carriage and the shoes, but they might get outbonked by the big boys. The Yankees spent more money than anyone other than the government, and the Red Sox invested craftily and might be better than anyone. There is also a team that plays in this division called the Baltimore Orioles, but I can't get a straight story about who they are or where they come from.
1. The Red Sox
Gotta like their style. They already had a super solid squad so they find every cheap high potential reward player to augment. They should be able to find enough good pitching to be a good pitching team. For some reason I don't totally trust the top of their rotation to be tops for most of the season, but I think enough of their guesses will be right. Kevin Youkilis would have been an awesome viking if born in different times.

2. The Rays
I don't like picking the Yankees third, but I don't like their mojo either, and these guys still have a great group. I imagine they'll regress a little, but by midseason they ought to be really good again. I have this hunch that they might trade for Roy Oswalt. For everything that went right last year, they might have things that didn't go right this year. They also might have a few more fans. Hard to say though, Florida is full of paradoxes.

3. The Yankees
So much is right and so much is wrong here. They spent a bajillion dollars and that will make them better, but maybe not better enough. A-Rod is really really good, but he needs to find a way to be in the news that doesn't make you cringe. Posada is getting old. So are Matsui and Damon. So is Jeter. They need more good stuff up the middle. They need to A.J. Burnett to be about as good as they're paying him to be, and that seems unlikely. Still, what would we do without them?

4. The Blue Jays
Good folks with bad timing. They don't hit enough, and they're in the wrong division. It would be nice to see their luck turn for the better and for them to sneak into the wild card, but that's the thing with baseball: the season is really really long. Sooner or later, the truth comes out. If you want to read more Blue Jay thoughts, scroll down to my 5a.m. thoughts on them below.

5. The Orioles
Last year the Orioles traded Miguel Tejada to the Astros. This was a good baseball move, but much more importantly, it made the Astros the new Orioles, and now the Orioles can be something else. Something that develops players and only splurges on the latest hotness when they're close to beating the big boys. One advantage to playing in the A.L. East: if you're not that good, you know not to try too hard.

The A.L. Central

In the A.L. there is one division of great teams (even the Orioles will have a very productive year, even if they will only win 71 games), there is a division of average teams, and there is a divsion of mediocre teams. I wonder if it has to do with the ferocity and love for baseball being the thickest and most congealed on the East Coast, and getting steadily less fierce and solid as you go west. Maybe it's not exactly the love of baseball, but the love of winning professional baseball games. I can't help but feel that this just matters a little more on the Eastern part of the country. I think this speaks well of the West Coast. I appreciate its "Eastern" (as in Zen, etc.) thinking.

Either way, for the next five or so paragraphs, I'm stuck in the middle with you. Let's see what this sandwich is made of.

1. The Cleveland Spiders
Ok, that's not really their name. It's the Cleveland Indians. A few years ago when the Indians were up 3-1 on the Red Sox in the ALCS, the wonderful Joe Posnanski wrote a wonderful piece about how the Indians were probably going to win one of the next three, and probably going to win the World Series after that, and either way it's probably time to change their logo to something other than Chief (fucking) Wahoo. Yes, for those of you who didn't know, there is a professional baseball team that represents itself with a cartoon of a grinning Indian named Chief Wahoo. In his piece, Joe offers the name the "Spiders" for the team that plays in Cleveland. That was actually one of the names used by that franchise back in the very early days of baseball. It also offers some truly exciting logo and mascot possibilities.

I like this team for whatever reasons that I sometimes like teams other than the Mets, but I can't really throw my full support behind a team with that symbol. I hope that their next World Series and the end of Chief Wahoo are somehow related, but who knows. The Devil Rays became the Rays and then got crazy good, and that was with a name that probably wasn't too offensive to very many people. Think about it Cleveland.

Anyway, right now they seem to be the most above-average of this group of average squads. They have pitching issues, but at least their fourth starter isn't Sidney Ponson.

2.The Minnesota Identical Telepathic Twins

That's obviously not their name either, but maybe I just don't feel like correctly naming the teams in the A.L. Central today. I was tempted to write in the Royals, but their fourth starter is Sidney Ponson. Also, it's still one of those little truths that the Twins are almost always a little better than you think they are. They say it's better to be lucky than good, but the Twins are good at being lucky. They won't make the playoffs but they get my stamp of approval, and that's what most teams are playing for anyway.

3. The Kansas City Royal Crown Colas

Third place goes to whoever wants it the most, and that would be the Kansas Ponsonians. I am baffled with the baseball writing talent that is somehow associated with Kansas City. James, JoePo, Rany, Neyer.... Kansas, perhaps I underestimated you. I guess it doesn't really matter now, though, now that I'm not there anymore.

4. The Chicago Smart Wool Socks

I was going to give these guys their "proper" name, because honestly, what's funnier than a baseball team calling themselves the "White Socks," or "Sox" I guess, but whatever. Or maybe not whatever, because the use of the X is just to seXy things up, and make you forget that this team is named after the things you put me between your shoes and your feet (and the most bland color imaginable). South siders, I say ditch it or (much better) embrace it. Wear white socks on your hands. Wear them on your ears. Make big ridiculous things out of socks. I give them points for having this weird blue collar style that comes from the top on down, but I'm not convinced that they are above below-average.

5. The Bengal Tigers

This is a mess. That is no longer in question. The question now is if it's just a mess or a really big mess. This year they are paying Gary Sheffield $14 MILLION to not play for them, and Dontrelle Willis almost as much to not be good enough to play for them. They are using a 20 year-old kid in the rotation to try to save the job of a 200 year-old manager. Their problems are just a little too easy to compare to those of Detroit and those of Tigers. To the Detroit Tigers, I offer this plan of action. 1) Save the Tigers. 2) Save Detroit. Once you have done those things, you will look up to see yourselves with an amazing baseball team. Good luck.

The A.L. West
The West likes to try things. They don't always work, but they don't always not work. That's why it's called trying.

1. The California Angels
At least half the reason they win the division is because no one else does. They play a "West Coast style" offense. It's not necessarily a good offense, but it's fun for everyone involved, and it should be good enough. I don't know if they could win any divisions east of them, but hey, they don't have to.

2. The Oakland A's
Just when I think Billy Beane seems to constantly be developing a contending team without actually building it high enough to actually contend, he goes out and gets a bunch of veterans with an eye toward contending. I like it. Their rotation is still too much of a shoulder shrug, but they've definitely won (back) some style points. They seem as well positioned as anyone in the division for 2010. For '9, the Angels probably have enough residual goodness to win, and also the A's rotation is filled entirely by people who just recently decided to put photography on the back-burner while they see if this baseball thing works out.

3. The Texas Rangers
Let's go ahead and make it a clean Angles in '9, A's in '10, Rangers in '11, Mariners in '12. Former team owner George W. Bush will throw out the Rangers' ceremonial first pitch this year. He represents the idea that a good offense trumps all. Both he and the team he used to run have spent the most important years of their lives illuminating the fallacies of this line of thinking. I hear the Rangers have some great young pitching in the "pipeline." I also hear we have a real president now.

4. The Seattle Mariners.
I really want this team to be good again. The world is just a hair more special when good baseball is played in Seattle. For now, they busy themselves with the ultimate nostalgia signing and the search for a fungus that will naturally and safely clean up the mess left by the previous administration. As stated earlier, the division is there's for the taking in 2012. For now, these Mariners would do well to invest in a good compass.

Stay tuned. N.L. coming shortly.

A Strange Epidemic

8% of baseball players cannot focus without amphetamines. They look aimlessly around the dugout while they wait to bat. They look at the grass and the fans when they are on the field. They think about the last conversation they had, and the fan in the green shirt. They rotely slump into position as the next pitches. Fortunately these players take prescription speed before games so that they don't have an unfair disadvantage, and y'know, just to get by. One time I was to this party with a lot of major league baseball players, and I kept having really short conversations with them. As I left I felt like I had spent the night watching TV.

Blue Jays, Past Present and Future

The Blue Jays of my youth were blue saviors. It was 1991 and 2, and I, at times, was blue. My bizarre sense of humor* didn’t seem to catch the way it did in my earlier years, or perhaps it was merely the offense that is growing up. Through fourth grade I had known little but ups, and it had come time to learn about the occasional downs. Such is life. It’s quite beautiful really.

*I had a thought about my sense of humor the other day: what I really revel in are things that demonstrably don’t make sense to either the person on the receiving end of the information nor the one on the sending end. I thought this while wearing my Salzer Brother’s Mechanics shirt. I have no idea who the Salzer Brothers are, nor do I have any idea how I got that shirt. It was never my brother’s and none of my friends seemed to recognize it. As far as I was concerned, one day it simply showed up in my closet. That, to me, was the Pujols of shirt acquisition.

Speaking of Pujols, back to baseball. Actually I think Albert Pujols and I are around the same age (I’m 27) so he was about 10 at the time too. The Mets were terrible. They’d gone from laughable to not funny anymore. The Mets of glory that closed out the 80s had turned into Japan’s lost decade.

Through the telescope of the box scores printed in the New York Times Sports section, I saw a distant utopia. I saw John Olerud hitting .400 for half a season. I saw Roberto Alomar being a tremendously complete player. I saw Devon White playing a beautiful center field and a fantastic leadoff guy who would occasionally whack a home run. I saw Joe Carter as the aging hero, still good enough to hit cleanup. I saw Paul Molitor as another really good player who happened to play half his games in Toronto. I saw Juan Guzman and Pat Hentgen being very difficult to beat. I saw Ed Sprague being the only non-star in the lineup but still being, at least in my eyes, pleasantly solid. A poor man’s Scott Brosius perhaps (wait, what happened to Brosius? He was Brosius and then he was gone. Maybe he knew when to get out and he did.) In the Jays I had a nominal second favorite team that I could happily obsess over while mostly ignoring my nominal first favorite team. I was rewarded with two World Series. To me, neither ever seemed in doubt. That team was too good.

Now, in 2009, I look at the Blue Jays, as a team that up until last year, were always a very good team that could theoretically finish in second, or who knows, maybe even win the division, but realistically were very likely, and inevitably did end up in third behind momma bear and poppa bear. Now another one has grown up faster than them, and the Blue Jays are a very good team that could finish in third, or if things get really weird, maybe second, but realistically are very likely to finish fourth behind momma bear, poppa bear and Miley Ray Cyrus.

Not only are they losing the race, but some of the parts may be coming loose, damaged or old. I used to feel that Scott Rolen had the presence, calm and effectiveness of a large cat. He always seemed poised, in control, and he might, at any moment, choose to end you. Now he’s one of those guys who’s still good, but if I’m an opposing team, I’m secretly glad that they have him. Especially over a long season. Maybe it’s just me.

The Jays had a good core, but with some missing parts, and they made a stab at the whole acquiring high quality veteran players route in the hopes of toppling a giant. It had a sort of karmic backlash that seems to hit my Mets so frequently. Scott Rolen remembered that he gets hurt, and it knocks him out or messes with his bat speed and power and the like. Frank Thomas remembered that he was old and not on illegal enhancers. Lyle Overbay remembered that he’s not necessarily particularly good. David Eckstein remained as scrappy as Popeye. He didn’t forget to be mediocre offensively either.

I found it a little surreal when the Blue Jays rehired Cito Gaston to be their manager last year. He was the manager of the early 90s Jays. Maybe they were hoping he could bring a little of the old magic with him. It's halfway to hogwash, but there's something to be said for the muscle memory of winning. Knowing in your body that something can happen makes it more accessible. It's not a prerequisite, and you still have to be good, and even the losers get lucky sometimes, but mindset matters.

People say that the Blue Jays are just behind the other three talent-wise, and would be favored to win just about any other division, but they are where they are, and if it doesn't work out this year they need to think about starting over and looking more toward 2011 and 2012. They would have the best tradables on the market, and they could stop being a team that "should" finish higher, but never does. The clowns and the jokers have passed them, and one way or another the Toronto Blue Jays must figure out how to unstick themselves from the middle.

Relief

I am pleased that we got K-Rod and thrilled we got Putz.
I am neither pleased nor thrilled with their names. I kind of think K-Rod is a dumb nickname, but I can't stop using it. Francisco Rodriguez feels like a cumbersome title- as if I'm also using his middle name and an honorific. I'm not sure what my beef with "K-Rod" is. It's not really that bad. I just have odd mental rules about naming someone after what they do (the K is for strikeout). I think if we're calling him "strikeout-Rod" he ought to be freaky good at striking people out. Please hold while I capture some hard data on that with some of my internets.

In 2002, Mr. K recorded 17 regular season outs, 13 of which were strikeouts. That is absolutely worthy of the name K-Rod. Still, when Benny Agbayani made his major league debut, he whacked an absurd 10 home runs in 73 at bats, but no one coronated him "Benny Agbayhomerunny" or even "Ag-homer." A nickname like K-Rod needs to be earned. Last year Rodriguez struck out 10.14 batters per 9 innings, which is really good, but plenty (14) relievers were better. The two years before he was better with a 12.03 K/9 in '07 and 12.08 in '06, good enough for fifth both times.

I'd say K-Rod has been good enough to maintain his nickname, but if you were starting from scratch, you might give him a more conservative "F-Rod," which would be a good support base for the Mets' next up and coming potential star, F-Mart (Fernando Martinez). Now, K-Mart, if, for the sake of argument/ramblement, Rodriguez and Martinez were to swap last names, K-Mart I would be more lenient with, because of the accidental department store crossover.

As for our other big-name bullpen acquisition, Mr. J.J. Putz- love it. Love. It. For all the fliff-splashing the Bronxasaurus has been doing, I think the Putz trade might be the best move of the offseason. It makes the Mets bullpen go from passable to great. It means that K-Rod can be the capital c Closer while Putz can be used where he's needed most, sometimes getting outs more crucial to a win than the final 3, and that's good news, because from what I hear, Putz is the better pitcher.

It also means that at some point in the year, Putz will blunder and give up a lead, and the New York Post will print a picture on the back page of J.J. with his head hung, possibly with an opposing player circling the bases in the background, and the headline will read "What a Putz." This, like the economic slide and the end of the Long Count, is not a negotiable outcome. It is a certainty. A when, not an if. Why oh why does anyone read the New York Post.

D. Murphy,

The Mets have an exciting young second baseman with good plate discipline and power. This is good for my soul. I've been eating too much junk food, but tomorrow I might get a car, and if the Mets keep playing this guy, and he keeps doing well, and I drive my car to quality grocery stores, then both me and the Mets will have good plate discipline and power.

Central

Here I am, awash in North Carolina, soothing my nerves with reports about baseball and this and that. Soon we'll have VPs and conventions and debates. The world series will happen and then it won't matter and then we'll look back on it all and know more about what it all means. Bernie Mac died two days ago. Isaac Hayes died today or yesterday. Morgan Freeman got in a car accident. Keep breathing everyone. Notice your breath. Notice the sky. Be aware of bears and baseballs.

The A.L. Central is upside down. Of course, this statement defies reality. The A.L. Central is what it is. The Tigers are looking raggedy. Their hair is messed up. They are sleepy. Every once in a while they take down a bison and we all nod our heads and say "Yes, these are the tigers we know. The ones we have read about. The ones that will rise to the top of the mountain," but it seems that will not happen during this administration. If I were them I would donate $1000 for every homerun hit to tiger conservation, and players signed through at least next year should give the legal max to Obama.

The Indians are fools. They are more talented than any of us, but they insist on losing. Chief Wahoo laughs at all of them. He is the most foolish but he gets the joke. I'm really excited about the Watchmen movie coming out (next year I think). The Cleveland Indian franchise should make a human-sized Chief Wahoo and burn it in effigy at Burning Man. They should get on that. I think Burning Man is coming up soon.

The Royals can be good or bad. Joe Posnanski will be brilliant either way. Still, I feel it is time for them to be good. As the Japanese say, please try it.

The White Sox and Twins are defying gravity. That's why I thought the division was upside down. The state of this division is a stark reminder in the difficulties of telling the future. Is it safe to say that this team would be in great shape if it had Johan Santana? Would his coming departure be too much of a distraction. The Marlins and Twins occupy a similar mental category for me. Feisty young teams that I am just now coming to accept as contenders. The Rays, Marlins and Twins might all win their divisions this year. The times they are a-changin'. I would try to explain it to North Carolina, but I don't know if it would be worth the considerable effort.

One third review

So I take a break from blogging for a bit, thinking that the baseball world can right itself without me, and look what happens. The Rays, White Sox and Marlins are all still in first place. The Mets are playing more like a team that has a declining Delgado, a concussed Church, and Luis Castillo, then a team that has Wright, Reyes, Beltran and Santana. Do your thing Pedro.

Across the board, there are teams scrabbling with disappointment. Billy Beane once said that the first third of the season is for evaluating what you have, the second for getting what you need, the third for running and dancing. Something like that.

The Yankees are a game under .500. They'll rebound, but they have to accept that this might not be their year, and they were right to not give up the farm for Santana. They need to get healthy and play well. A contractual detox is on the way when Giambi et al come off the books at the end of the year. (Is Giambi done after this year?)

The A.L. Central needs to figure itself out. The Royals are bad. We get that. The two monsters are playing badly: The Indians are 24-29, but they've outscored their opponents. With little knowledge of their team, I'll say that they need to turn a minor leauger or another team's castoff into a bullpen monster. The Tigers don't look so hot. They need Jim Leyland to dance. They need a team dance. They need to get fans to do the dance without telling them to.

Seattle is done, AND they gave up the farm for Bedard. Oh well, I guess. They have some trade bait. They could trade Richie Sexson for a fish.

The Mets need magic. They're trying to win with bats and throws. The problem with the long season is that it can iron away all belief in magic. Maybe doing that at the beginning of this year will leave plenty of time in the latter half for belief. Two rays of hope: Pedro is coming back. I don't know if he'll stablize everything, but I do know that he is a magician. His magic takes a toll on his body, but just seeing the impossible things he does might wake up this team. The second one is that Edgardo Alfonzo is in the organization. This will mean little to nothing on the field, but karmically it's huge. At some point, the Mets need to find a wonderful young second baseman, start Alfonzo for a game, and then put the new guy in. Luis Castillo can be a useful bench player or someone else's player.

I'm not sure what my beef with Castillo is. I guess I'm just frustrated with how the Mets seem to think he's the same guy he was ten years ago. It makes me miss Fonzie all the more. Also, for the record, I always suspected Jeff Keppinger would be good.