The Welcome Cat

The N.L. East

2010-04-09T14:42:00.001-07:00

The N.L. East

Here’s where I really start caring. Why? The Mets. That’s why. The fucking Mets. Ah the Mets. They are the reason I’m writing any of this really. I don’t care enough about the other 29 teams. Perhaps I would adopt another team were the boys from Queens not around, but perhaps not. I am not here to deal in hypotheticals, not that one anyway. Instead, let’s take a brief tour of this team as I have known them.

Growing up, my father was a Brooklyn Dodgers fan. He grew up in Connecticut, and it was probably between them and the Yankees. The Red Sox were a little too distant. According to the top historian on my staff Buck 65, the Dodgers moved West in 1957 and were replaced by the Mets in the 1962 expansion.

In 1981, at 3:30 in the afternoon on the 17^th of November, I was born in Manhattan. The Mets second and most recent World Series championship was just less than 5 years later in 1986. I know much about it now, but I don’t have any firsthand memories I can claim as my own. Perhaps in the buried recesses of my memory there are leaps of elation as the ball trickles through Bill Buckner’s legs as if he was so stunned by history happening that he caused it to happen, Mookie comes into score, Jesse Orosco records the final out…

I remember the great-but-should-have-been-better Mets of 1988. I remember the front page of the New York Times when Bobby Bonilla signed an ostentatious and before long disastrous contract. The early 90s Mets slogged through those years with the unforgiving slowness of a real New York summer. I don’t know if New York gets those summers anymore. I don’t know that they don’t- my last full summer there was in 2004. I just remember there were times that the heat would pour down from above and burn up out of the concrete, and if it didn’t make you so slow, you might imagine yourself slapping away fireballs with a ping-pong racquet.

After a few years of what could only be charitably called mediocrity, hope sprung eternal when the Mets developed three stunning young pitchers- Pulsipher, Isringhausen and Wilson to go along with all star pitcher Bobby Jones. Things were looking up. Isringhausen eventually had success as a closer in Oakland and St. Louis where they called him Izzy-gonna-blow-it? His career was by far the most successful of the three. Wilson seemed to constantly be recovering from surgery, had some scattered moments of promise in Cincinnati, and that was it. Pulse, my favorite, after his stunning debut with the Mets, battled injuries off and on, and never really got a major league career up and running. The team would have to wait until the late 90s to be a force again.

It is easily forgotten, especially with the other New York team enjoying one of the greatest stretches of dominance seen in the history of the game, but the late 90s-early 0s Mets were formidable. You didn’t want to mess with Fonzie-Olerud-Piazza. You didn’t want to hit a ball near Rey Ordonez. You usually couldn’t do much against Leiter’s cut fastball. My favorite ever baseball memory is this:

The other team is at bat. No, I don’t remember who they were. All I remember is a sharp groundball, up the middle, just to the right of second base. Looks like a single. Alfonzo darts toward it and stabs it with his glove, all his momentum sending him toward left-field. Freeze the picture there and it seems that he has made a nice play, that will simply mean that this is an infield single, as opposed to one that will be picked up by the center fielder. He is several steps behind second base and running in the wrong direction. He could try to stop and throw, or the Jeter jump-throw (this was before he patented it). Neither of those was likely to work, and it probably made as much sense as anything to just hold on to the ball. Instead, Fonzie did something I had never seen before or since. Without a moment’s hesitation, he flipped it to Rey Ordonez out of his glove. Ordonez was also behind second, running the opposite direction as if he had somehow foreseen this whole thing. He caught the pass barehand and fired to first in one motion. They got the runner by a step and a half. It was breathtaking. Most of the Mets teams I’ve seen in my day- if that happened it would seem like a bizarre fluke- incredible but mostly unintentional. People would find ways to make fun of them for pulling off something like that when the basics of the game sometimes seemed lost on them. Those Mets though, they had a swagger. They expected to win if the opponent was not the Yankees or Braves, and occasionally against them as well. Those moments were magical, but all the more so because they were within the reach of that team. They really were good.

The Mets of 2010 are, like, so many Mets teams before them, trying to disprove history, not continue it. The stunning failures of 2007 and 2008 were followed with a yearlong malaise in 2009. The entire rotation had a forgettable year. Reyes went down, Beltran went down, Delgado went down. Murphy didn’t hit how we’d hoped. The baseball gods could not fell David Wright by conventional means, so he got hit in the head with a pitch. To my knowledge, two Mets had seasons they can look back on fondly. One is Jeff Francouer. The not so long ago future of the Braves brought them frustration, outs and not much else. They swapped him for Ryan Church, who they released at the end of the season. It was addition by subtraction more than anything else. As a Met, Francouer was really good. It was only 2 months or so, but heads were turned and then scratched. He is to be the Mets starting right fielder this year. Let’s do the guy a favor and not really expect anything in particular out of this. The other Met who had a good year was Luis Castillo. He got on base a lot and still has decent speed. The Mets spent all winter trying to trade him. They found no takers. Anything like last year’s production would be fantastic.

There was one other Met who produced favorable noises. That was Josh Thole. There’s a good chance that he’s the next Daniel Murphy- a guy who you haven’t heard of, plays well once rosters are expanded, makes you ponder the next year and beyond, and it turns out there was a reason you hadn’t heard of him before. Still, Thole brings up one of the more bewildering offseasons the Mets have had in a while.

Josh Thole may not amount to much in terms of wins, but he’s someone for fans to be happy enough about. At worst he’s a fun backup who you can dream on a little. And he’s cheap, and will be for a while. What’s not to like. With Thole already in the fold, the Mets went out and signed catchers as if their value was cumulative. They signed three catchers. None of them hit much. Rod Barajas hits a little more than the others, and he’ll be the starter. Henry Blanco can throw out runners like no other and he’ll be the backup. Chris Coste will walk around with a puzzle piece in his hand to symbolize that he may have made sense to a team looking to contend who was in need of a backup catcher. I hope the Mets contend, but the only thing they definitely don’t need is a backup catcher.

As for the other positions, Wright, I think will bounce back from his bizarro power outage, Bay should whack home runs and move slowly, Reyes thankfully seems to have a normal hamstring and thyroid, so, y’know, that’s good, Beltran is our $18M secret weapon, Francouer is eliciting some nice spring training-esque praise, Murphy should be serviceable at first and Castillo may just “earn” his salary again.

I doubt there is more potential swing in any rotation in baseball. Last year existed almost entirely on the crappy end of the swing. There isn’t much to say here that hasn’t already been said. I watch the middle three- Pelfrey, Maine, Perez- with the concern usually reserved for trying to figure out if a friend or relative is just a little sick or really sick. The jumble of impressive-for-a-fifth starter fifth starters are impressive, but I don’t know how much I trust them the second and third times through the order.

What happens: Perfection, beauty, indescribable goodness. Perez finds a fastball-curveball thing that makes heads spin. Pelfrey fucks you up. Maine figures out how to be a crafty snapper with neat stuff. Nelson Figueroa sings opera solos. Francouer is dangerous in the 6-spot. Beltran plays many games and does what he can do. Reyes finds that magic balance between baseball and dancing.

That’s right, I’m picking the Mets to win the division. Deal with it.

2. The Philadelphia Phillies

So, these guys are good. Utley’s a beast, Howard’s a monster, Werth is worth it, Rollins will roll you, and because of their presence, Ibanez and Polanco can be nifty complimentary players. They also have the Flyin Hawaiian and someone who plays catcher. Sure they’re good.

Then there’s the rotation. Halladay is really really good. Hamels is very good and the rest of them will elicit few complaints as long as the first two do their jobs.

But what I really want to talk about is The Trade. Quick recap: the Phillies had Cliff Lee, an ace under contract for one more year who seemed to want to test the open market after this season. The Blue Jays had Halladay, even better than Lee, who was definitely gone after this year, and there was no way they were going to contend. On the same day, the Phillies acquired Halladay for some of their best prospects and traded Lee for some good but not quite as good prospects. They then extended Halladay for the next three years. The team improved, and they swapped an ace who would likely leave for one who will stick around. Not bad.

Still, so many have looked at what they got for Lee and wondered if that deal was worth it. What if they had just accepted a crappy farm system and gone Halladay-Lee-Hamels…. I think GM Ruben Amaro saw it like this. He had three options.

1) Make the Halladay trade and see what he can get for Lee or Blanton later. I think this was rejected because if you let fans fall in love with that rotation, they will be heartbroken when you break it up. I’m generally on the side of good decisions over the feelings of the mob, but this one I understand.

2) Do it all in one fell swoop. This is what he did. The problem is that by attaching the timetable of the Halladay deal to that of the Lee deal, you don’t have much time to let a market develop and find the right trade. Maybe Blanton gets you part of that haul.

3) Keep Halladay and Lee, trade Blanton if you can. Here’s my little pet theory. Amaro had pulled off the Lee trade- an ace for some good prospects- at the last deadline, and here he was about to do it again… and he kind of just freaked out. Looking at that lineup with that rotation- something just felt wrong. That and his farm system would be barren, his payroll overloaded- no we must take steps to reduce payroll and restock the farm. An ace for an ace. Prospects for prospects. We’re still improving the team.

Fair enough, but think about the alternative. First his team would be by far the most likely of any other to reach the World Series. They would be one of the four best teams in baseball and the other three play in the A.L. East. Second, if and when Lee walks away, they get two draft picks in a stacked draft (from what I hear- I know next to nothing about undrafted prospects). Finally, they are probably doing fine money-wise, but I think that rotation is worth some extra patronage, not to mention the increased chance of advancing in the playoffs which is lots of extra $$$. Lastly, I bet someone takes Blanton off their hands to at least bring the payroll back to where they want it.

Still these guys are good. I’ll give ‘em the Wild Card.

3. The Atlanta Braves

I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see another prolonged ascension from these guys. Not sure what to make of the Vasquez trade. Thought it was kind of dumb at the time. Everyone love Jason Heyward. Chipper is still Chipper, but he needs to be more of a complimentary player now. He’ll carry the team one more time for Bobby, but then it’ll be time for others to shoulder the load. They have good pitching too.

4. Fish!

These guys are always good. At the same time, they’re usually bad. Fear the fish.

5. The Washington Nationals

I’m still not sold on their name. Like a fine cuisine, it takes time to develop a real baseball team, but these guys seem to be some version of on their way. I fear Strasburg.

The N.L. West

2010-04-08T23:23:00.000-07:00

1. The Rockies

It's time for all good cows to come to the aid of their pasture. It was a Tuesday and everyone was one day deader than they were on Monday. Isn't it over when the bat turns back into a person? Wait, were they vampires all along? Bring me the head of whoever said play fair. Rogue state, rogue house, rogue the x-man, by which I mean the x-lady.

2. The Dodgers

They are good, and yet, nope. The problem is L.A. That city is a problem. Anything that stays there long enough is likely to reflect the problem. That's why the Dodgers won't win the division this year.

3. Snakes on a plane!

These guys spin and slither. They will bite you. Isn't it weird how some teams are vastly better than others, but it is extremely rare for someone to be outside the 40-60% range of wins and losses. No one really approaches an outsider's idea of dominance. Snakes!

4. The Giants

Unfortunately, size only helps you so much in baseball, and then, after that point, it starts making it more difficult. Even the largest bats allowed are so small as to be unwieldy in your fingers. While you need few steps to get between bases, your bulk makes you lumber. You are very easy to tag. Gotta love the Freak though. I mean that guy is just awesome. And small. I've heard he looks 14 with his shirt off. I've heard that Pablo Sandoval is actually a panda, but it's just a rumor.

5. The Padres

While they're not that good, they can still be the Ringo Starr of this band. If the Beatles were the N.L. West, the Padres would be Ringo, the Dodgers Paul, the Rockies John, the Diamondbacks George and the Giants would be Billy Shears. Bud Selig would be Yoko Ono, the Cardinals would be Mick Jagger, the Brewers Keith Richards and the Rays would be the Velvet Underground. The thing is, I doubt that this era of baseball can live up to that era of music because most things don't.

The N.L. Central 2010

2010-04-08T22:27:00.000-07:00

The N.L. Central

What is it about the Centrals? They are not places of fear. Their non-coasts are defined by mediocrity and uncertainty. This Central has a team that stands alone. The other does not. Still, the Central weaves good stories. It's tales aren't blown out by the ocean or swallowed by the heat of an overgrown metropolis.

1. The St. Louis Cardinals

Probably the most obvious pick in the whole shebang. They are not the best, but they are the most better. That's all. I like Pujols because he is magic without being magical. Pedro was magical. Big Papi, back when he was younger and on steroids was magical. Pujols- I think Pujols is just that good. He just outworks you and he's better.

2. The Milwaukee Brewers

I take back some of what I said before about the Central's mediocrity. I was a different man then. I failed to see the rising star in Cincinnati, the still decent roster in Chicago, the interesting tire stores of Pittsburgh and Houston. But mostly I forgot that the Brewers are still a nifty squad. I suppose they lack pitching, but where's your pitching? I mean seriously, where is it?

3. Here's where I really get to say "Ummm..." There are still four teams to rank and none of them are exactly jumping at me for the honor of third on this worst grouping of the world's very best baseball players. The way I see it, there are two groups of two. The Cs and then the pH. For this group I will reward direction by picking the

Cincinnati Reds.

I associate this team with heat. This is probably wrong. I don't know what the climate is like in Southern Ohio, but based on my four years in Northern Ohio, I'm not ready to declare it a place of heat the way much of the South is. The other thing I associate the Reds with is mediocrity. I think the last time I remember them being good was when I was in high school. It's very possible they snuck in a couple of good years when I wasn't looking- surely there best year of Griffey-Dunn wasn't so bad- but nothing worth more than a "pheh" has happened with this team recently, so part of me extrapolates that and figures that this is more or less the way it is. Now people are saying this team could be good very soon. Probably not this year soon, but perhaps the next one. I want to write anxious things about Dusty Baker and young pitchers, but it just wouldn't accomplish very much.

4. The Chicago Cubes

I lived in Chicago for three and a half years, ending this past August. In the many Cubs fans, I saw a little of the Mets fans I identify with. Being a fan of either one of these teams is more than anything about dashed hopes. Neither is consistently bad, and they will sometimes be quite good. They will keep you thinking that with a few breaks and a nifty second baseman, magic could happen. In the end the story is about the wrong-headedness of the higher-ups and the defeat of the lower downs.

Now I'm going to be a snooty East Coaster and say that the Mets breed seems to me more academic about this general state. Cubs fans are like sophomores who are still full of hope, still charged with orange energy. They will make jokes about their team's century-long championship drought, but behind it all there is something puppy-like. All teams have that to some degree, but Mets fans seem to have the awareness that they are merely the chorus in a Greek tragedy, and Greek tragedies only end one way. Still, I dream...

5. The Houston Astros

This team may slowly be getting smarter. It might be too slow, and... wait, they signed Brandon Lyon to, what was it 3 years $15M? See I was just getting swept up in this whole the Central is not that bad thing, and then I remember that. Here are words that sound bolder than they are: The Astros will never make the playoffs with Carlos Lee on the roster.
That leaves

6. The Pittsburgh Pirates

This team was very successful, or at least very good in some of my most formative years. Back when they had Bonds v.1, Van Slyke and the rest of the gang. Perhaps for that reason I expect them to rise one day. It's kind of like how my dad likes to say "Watch out for catchers." I like to think "The Pirates will be good one of these days." It's not based on a lot, and now I have come to realize that I am merely taking the notion that given enough time, any franchise will eventually be able to put together a very good team, and giving is slightly more weight when it comes to the Pirates.

Baseball! 2010!

2010-03-07T22:42:00.000-08:00

It's here people! Didn't you know that every year I predict the baseball season? It's as true as whales. There are but a few rules: 1. The Mets Win. 2. Baseball is cosmically meaningless, miniaturely meaningful, meaningfully cosmic, meaninglessly miniature, comically full of seems (at least it seems that way), seemingly meaningful, meaninglessly cosmic. 3. There Are No Rules.

The A.L. Fucking East.

Don't you see what's happening people? They are accruing all the power! They are only pretending to fight each other, when really they build in strength until they will unite and crush the other divisions. The only hope to stop them is in the defector: Toronto. We can only assume that this has to do with them being in Canada. Stay in St. Louis Albert. Stay there or cross the border. Honestly, I'm sticking to Rule 1, but right now, I'm not sure the Mets deserve you.

1. The Yankees

I am, all of a sudden, as if awaking from a dream, upon which, nothing that was previously obvious still is, I find myself surprised that the Yankees are the best team in baseball. The Red Sox and Rays seemed to have outsmarted them, and an acidic element that seemed to erode their invincibility over time. Even the team that spends about three times the league average and 50% more than the next highest, even they cannot lock time into the late 90s.

It was odd how much talk there was of them "deserving" their World Series win. Tonya Harding doesn't deserve to win. The Yankees played baseball than anyone else. Thus, I am comfortable anointing them best team of 2009. This seems simple enough. It is also simple enough that the front office paid a lot of money in support of this, and that they dished out well over $400 million dollars in contracts the previous winter. Would a world in which C.C. Sabathia, charming and talented as he is, does not make $18 million dollars every year (or however much- if I don't look it up, it's because it doesn't matter), along with certain other changes, like drinkable water made accessible to the developing world, would that world be better? Or is there any greater-scheme connection between A-Rod's salary and those paid to teachers? That's where things get more complicated. I guess I don't care whether the Yankees deserved to win. Baseball is miniaturely meaningful. Deserve doesn't much enter the picture for me.

As for the games they will play, their rotation and lineup are both solid and loaded. Granderson might get a new jolt and give them a whole new deal at the top of their lineup. Jeter, Tex, A-Rod... these men are good at Whackstick. As if out of thin air they acquired Javy Vasquez. Their rotation is many things, but I can't imagine it won't be really good (by the way, in actual use, double negatives often don't mean exactly the same of the positive version of the statement.

I like Mariano Rivera because he is the only pitcher who basically just throws one pitch, and you can't confidently claim that he will age at anything like a normal rate until it happens.

2. The Rays

More gut than anything. That, and they are probably the second or third best team in the league. I mean this is the psycho division after all. I think Joe Maddon has another year's worth of doing his magic dance, and since they went berserko two years ago, they've always seemed to have an ambrosia flow of talent. Several scouts have used those exact words.

The Red Sox

These men wear red socks, and they are expected to be nifty at hitting, tremendous at defense, and monsters of the mound. Them winning the division seems as likely as any other outcome, and yet here they are in my predictions. I guess I'm loosely skeptical of this "new emphasis on defense." Yes the Mariners are charming, and my favorite play that I've ever seen in any sport is- well maybe you'll hear about it when I get to the Mets, but it's a defensive play. I just don't think it's the ticket to winning that recognizing on-base percentage for what it is was. Beltre is great, but I'm not saying DANG the Sox got BELTRE. I love Scutaro, but, I mean it's Scutaro. I actually love how this team is constructed. Awesome pitching, everyone capable with the glove and the bat, sneaky speed... it's just that I feel I described the Santana-Liriano Twins team, and that team would probably not have won this A.L. East.

But these Red Sox might. I believe these are the three best teams in baseball, with none of them significantly above any other. The Phillies could have been on that list, but we'll get to them.

4. The Orioles

There is a place called Baltimore.

It's... see once I... I've the bars are... the Wire took place in... there's this museum...

Adam Jones, Nick Markakis. I hear they're good. Other people too. Like Wieters. That's all I have to say about the Orioles.

5. The Blue Jays

It will be nice when this team can talk about the playoffs again. I don't know when that will be. No one does. It might be soon. It might be a decade or more. I have a reasonable amount of faith in the folks who run that team, whoever they are, but their division is a jungle. The Yankees aren't even crazy old any more. I feel like I could basically run the Mets. I don't know if I could run the Blue Jays.

The A.L. Central

Why do they call it the Central? Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago, Minnesota, Kansas City... these cities are in the Midwest. I've never called that area the "central" part of the United States, and I rarely refer to a region by its time-zone.

This is a division where I feel like there are teams that are good at winning and others that are good at losing. The Twins are somehow always better than you think they are, the Royals are pioneers of badness, the Indians ping-pong between these two and the other two do their best and hope it's good enough.

1. The Twins

Sometimes I wonder, but they are always better than you think they are. They will win baseball games.

2. The White Sox

Yeah, I dunno. Their lineup is less convincing than [insert something really unconvincing]. They can pitch enough to take second I suppose. I would catch the occasional Sox game on TV in Chicago. That Hawk guy is pretty unbearable. Give me Keith Hernandez criticizing the first baseman's footwork.

3. Hrmmm... let's go with the Tigers

These guys might actually be better than the White Sox. The thing is, they are also worse. It will depend on the day. It always depends on the day.

4. The Indians

I want them to win, but they won't win shit until they change that stupid logo. Listen here Cleveland people. I will buy a piece of Cleveland Spiders merchandise. That's $20 you can't have now, but will have on that condition. I bet I'm not the only one. Do it. I'm sick of this bullshit.

5. The Royals

Joe Posnanski, Bill James, Rob Neyer, Rany Jazayerli... these are some of the finest names in baseball writing. All are associated with the Royals. JoePo is pretty much the only reason I can name a non-Greinke Royal. Also the only reason I care about their fortunes. I wouldn't be shocked at all if there was something about Kansas City, be it the water, the light, the energy, the attitude... something that produces brilliant writing and crappy baseball.

The A.L. West

Whooooosh. The west wind blows. Sail until you reach land. Then keep a friendly demeanor and a hand half a moment from your cutlass. Whoooooosh.

1. I want to put the Mariners in. They have the best 1-2 pitching punch... awesome D... sneachy Ichiro... everyone loves Fig Newmans...

Screw it, the La La Angels

It'll be tighter this year, but I'll give it to them until they give it away. They are still good, and Scocia is probably the best manager in the division. Maybe in the A.L. Godzilla's not dead either.

2. The Mariners

Even for this I hesitate, because the Rangers are good too. Still... Fig Newmans...

3. The Rangers

Blardy blar sning bang woop patowza. That's all I got.

4. The athletic gentlemen from the land of the oaks.

Bill Beane, ever intriguing. One of these days we will wake up and the A's will be shockingly good. Don't expect this day to come before 2013. Maybe he's just in it for the long count.

A.L. 2009

2009-02-28T05:57:00.001-08:00

The seasons are shifting. Cold things are becoming warm. Cool things are becoming hot and uncool things are becoming cool. It all means so much (and nothing at all), far more than I can comprehend. One thing I do know is that it's time for my little annual tradition of predicting the 2009 baseball season.

Fair warning: These predictions will be so accurate it will question the notion of linear time. You might feel high, light-headed, bewildered, ecstatic. Your friends will say that there's something different about you. You will say that there's something different about you. The world will make loads more sense, except around certain people. You may find yourself suddenly interested in the following things: Jesus, leeks, trampolines, Saturn (the planet), the color maroon, Bugs Bunny, Saturn (the Roman god), fractals, atomic structure, wolves, rice, Tibet, Tibet Sprague, crop circles, afternoon television, features shared by more than one person, and gold, to name a few.

There are only three rules: The Mets win, I am right, and there are no rules.

Now without further ado:

The A.L. East
Oh dear oh dear oh dear, what to do here. The consensus 4th place team (the bluebirds of happiness) would at least contend in any other division. Last year's cinderella gets to keep the dress, the carriage and the shoes, but they might get outbonked by the big boys. The Yankees spent more money than anyone other than the government, and the Red Sox invested craftily and might be better than anyone. There is also a team that plays in this division called the Baltimore Orioles, but I can't get a straight story about who they are or where they come from.
1. The Red Sox
Gotta like their style. They already had a super solid squad so they find every cheap high potential reward player to augment. They should be able to find enough good pitching to be a good pitching team. For some reason I don't totally trust the top of their rotation to be tops for most of the season, but I think enough of their guesses will be right. Kevin Youkilis would have been an awesome viking if born in different times.

2. The Rays
I don't like picking the Yankees third, but I don't like their mojo either, and these guys still have a great group. I imagine they'll regress a little, but by midseason they ought to be really good again. I have this hunch that they might trade for Roy Oswalt. For everything that went right last year, they might have things that didn't go right this year. They also might have a few more fans. Hard to say though, Florida is full of paradoxes.

3. The Yankees
So much is right and so much is wrong here. They spent a bajillion dollars and that will make them better, but maybe not better enough. A-Rod is really really good, but he needs to find a way to be in the news that doesn't make you cringe. Posada is getting old. So are Matsui and Damon. So is Jeter. They need more good stuff up the middle. They need to A.J. Burnett to be about as good as they're paying him to be, and that seems unlikely. Still, what would we do without them?

4. The Blue Jays
Good folks with bad timing. They don't hit enough, and they're in the wrong division. It would be nice to see their luck turn for the better and for them to sneak into the wild card, but that's the thing with baseball: the season is really really long. Sooner or later, the truth comes out. If you want to read more Blue Jay thoughts, scroll down to my 5a.m. thoughts on them below.

5. The Orioles
Last year the Orioles traded Miguel Tejada to the Astros. This was a good baseball move, but much more importantly, it made the Astros the new Orioles, and now the Orioles can be something else. Something that develops players and only splurges on the latest hotness when they're close to beating the big boys. One advantage to playing in the A.L. East: if you're not that good, you know not to try too hard.

The A.L. Central

In the A.L. there is one division of great teams (even the Orioles will have a very productive year, even if they will only win 71 games), there is a division of average teams, and there is a divsion of mediocre teams. I wonder if it has to do with the ferocity and love for baseball being the thickest and most congealed on the East Coast, and getting steadily less fierce and solid as you go west. Maybe it's not exactly the love of baseball, but the love of winning professional baseball games. I can't help but feel that this just matters a little more on the Eastern part of the country. I think this speaks well of the West Coast. I appreciate its "Eastern" (as in Zen, etc.) thinking.

Either way, for the next five or so paragraphs, I'm stuck in the middle with you. Let's see what this sandwich is made of.

1. The Cleveland Spiders
Ok, that's not really their name. It's the Cleveland Indians. A few years ago when the Indians were up 3-1 on the Red Sox in the ALCS, the wonderful Joe Posnanski wrote a wonderful piece about how the Indians were probably going to win one of the next three, and probably going to win the World Series after that, and either way it's probably time to change their logo to something other than Chief (fucking) Wahoo. Yes, for those of you who didn't know, there is a professional baseball team that represents itself with a cartoon of a grinning Indian named Chief Wahoo. In his piece, Joe offers the name the "Spiders" for the team that plays in Cleveland. That was actually one of the names used by that franchise back in the very early days of baseball. It also offers some truly exciting logo and mascot possibilities.

I like this team for whatever reasons that I sometimes like teams other than the Mets, but I can't really throw my full support behind a team with that symbol. I hope that their next World Series and the end of Chief Wahoo are somehow related, but who knows. The Devil Rays became the Rays and then got crazy good, and that was with a name that probably wasn't too offensive to very many people. Think about it Cleveland.

Anyway, right now they seem to be the most above-average of this group of average squads. They have pitching issues, but at least their fourth starter isn't Sidney Ponson.

2.The Minnesota Identical Telepathic Twins

That's obviously not their name either, but maybe I just don't feel like correctly naming the teams in the A.L. Central today. I was tempted to write in the Royals, but their fourth starter is Sidney Ponson. Also, it's still one of those little truths that the Twins are almost always a little better than you think they are. They say it's better to be lucky than good, but the Twins are good at being lucky. They won't make the playoffs but they get my stamp of approval, and that's what most teams are playing for anyway.

3. The Kansas City Royal Crown Colas

Third place goes to whoever wants it the most, and that would be the Kansas Ponsonians. I am baffled with the baseball writing talent that is somehow associated with Kansas City. James, JoePo, Rany, Neyer.... Kansas, perhaps I underestimated you. I guess it doesn't really matter now, though, now that I'm not there anymore.

4. The Chicago Smart Wool Socks

I was going to give these guys their "proper" name, because honestly, what's funnier than a baseball team calling themselves the "White Socks," or "Sox" I guess, but whatever. Or maybe not whatever, because the use of the X is just to seXy things up, and make you forget that this team is named after the things you put me between your shoes and your feet (and the most bland color imaginable). South siders, I say ditch it or (much better) embrace it. Wear white socks on your hands. Wear them on your ears. Make big ridiculous things out of socks. I give them points for having this weird blue collar style that comes from the top on down, but I'm not convinced that they are above below-average.

5. The Bengal Tigers

This is a mess. That is no longer in question. The question now is if it's just a mess or a really big mess. This year they are paying Gary Sheffield $14 MILLION to not play for them, and Dontrelle Willis almost as much to not be good enough to play for them. They are using a 20 year-old kid in the rotation to try to save the job of a 200 year-old manager. Their problems are just a little too easy to compare to those of Detroit and those of Tigers. To the Detroit Tigers, I offer this plan of action. 1) Save the Tigers. 2) Save Detroit. Once you have done those things, you will look up to see yourselves with an amazing baseball team. Good luck.

The A.L. West
The West likes to try things. They don't always work, but they don't always not work. That's why it's called trying.

1. The California Angels
At least half the reason they win the division is because no one else does. They play a "West Coast style" offense. It's not necessarily a good offense, but it's fun for everyone involved, and it should be good enough. I don't know if they could win any divisions east of them, but hey, they don't have to.

2. The Oakland A's
Just when I think Billy Beane seems to constantly be developing a contending team without actually building it high enough to actually contend, he goes out and gets a bunch of veterans with an eye toward contending. I like it. Their rotation is still too much of a shoulder shrug, but they've definitely won (back) some style points. They seem as well positioned as anyone in the division for 2010. For '9, the Angels probably have enough residual goodness to win, and also the A's rotation is filled entirely by people who just recently decided to put photography on the back-burner while they see if this baseball thing works out.

3. The Texas Rangers
Let's go ahead and make it a clean Angles in '9, A's in '10, Rangers in '11, Mariners in '12. Former team owner George W. Bush will throw out the Rangers' ceremonial first pitch this year. He represents the idea that a good offense trumps all. Both he and the team he used to run have spent the most important years of their lives illuminating the fallacies of this line of thinking. I hear the Rangers have some great young pitching in the "pipeline." I also hear we have a real president now.

4. The Seattle Mariners.
I really want this team to be good again. The world is just a hair more special when good baseball is played in Seattle. For now, they busy themselves with the ultimate nostalgia signing and the search for a fungus that will naturally and safely clean up the mess left by the previous administration. As stated earlier, the division is there's for the taking in 2012. For now, these Mariners would do well to invest in a good compass.

Stay tuned. N.L. coming shortly.

A Strange Epidemic

2009-01-10T14:36:00.000-08:00

8% of baseball players cannot focus without amphetamines. They look aimlessly around the dugout while they wait to bat. They look at the grass and the fans when they are on the field. They think about the last conversation they had, and the fan in the green shirt. They rotely slump into position as the next pitches. Fortunately these players take prescription speed before games so that they don't have an unfair disadvantage, and y'know, just to get by. One time I was to this party with a lot of major league baseball players, and I kept having really short conversations with them. As I left I felt like I had spent the night watching TV.

Blue Jays, Past Present and Future

2008-12-28T15:27:00.000-08:00

The Blue Jays of my youth were blue saviors. It was 1991 and 2, and I, at times, was blue. My bizarre sense of humor* didn’t seem to catch the way it did in my earlier years, or perhaps it was merely the offense that is growing up. Through fourth grade I had known little but ups, and it had come time to learn about the occasional downs. Such is life. It’s quite beautiful really.

*I had a thought about my sense of humor the other day: what I really revel in are things that demonstrably don’t make sense to either the person on the receiving end of the information nor the one on the sending end. I thought this while wearing my Salzer Brother’s Mechanics shirt. I have no idea who the Salzer Brothers are, nor do I have any idea how I got that shirt. It was never my brother’s and none of my friends seemed to recognize it. As far as I was concerned, one day it simply showed up in my closet. That, to me, was the Pujols of shirt acquisition.

Speaking of Pujols, back to baseball. Actually I think Albert Pujols and I are around the same age (I’m 27) so he was about 10 at the time too. The Mets were terrible. They’d gone from laughable to not funny anymore. The Mets of glory that closed out the 80s had turned into Japan’s lost decade.

Through the telescope of the box scores printed in the New York Times Sports section, I saw a distant utopia. I saw John Olerud hitting .400 for half a season. I saw Roberto Alomar being a tremendously complete player. I saw Devon White playing a beautiful center field and a fantastic leadoff guy who would occasionally whack a home run. I saw Joe Carter as the aging hero, still good enough to hit cleanup. I saw Paul Molitor as another really good player who happened to play half his games in Toronto. I saw Juan Guzman and Pat Hentgen being very difficult to beat. I saw Ed Sprague being the only non-star in the lineup but still being, at least in my eyes, pleasantly solid. A poor man’s Scott Brosius perhaps (wait, what happened to Brosius? He was Brosius and then he was gone. Maybe he knew when to get out and he did.) In the Jays I had a nominal second favorite team that I could happily obsess over while mostly ignoring my nominal first favorite team. I was rewarded with two World Series. To me, neither ever seemed in doubt. That team was too good.

Now, in 2009, I look at the Blue Jays, as a team that up until last year, were always a very good team that could theoretically finish in second, or who knows, maybe even win the division, but realistically were very likely, and inevitably did end up in third behind momma bear and poppa bear. Now another one has grown up faster than them, and the Blue Jays are a very good team that could finish in third, or if things get really weird, maybe second, but realistically are very likely to finish fourth behind momma bear, poppa bear and Miley Ray Cyrus.

Not only are they losing the race, but some of the parts may be coming loose, damaged or old. I used to feel that Scott Rolen had the presence, calm and effectiveness of a large cat. He always seemed poised, in control, and he might, at any moment, choose to end you. Now he’s one of those guys who’s still good, but if I’m an opposing team, I’m secretly glad that they have him. Especially over a long season. Maybe it’s just me.

The Jays had a good core, but with some missing parts, and they made a stab at the whole acquiring high quality veteran players route in the hopes of toppling a giant. It had a sort of karmic backlash that seems to hit my Mets so frequently. Scott Rolen remembered that he gets hurt, and it knocks him out or messes with his bat speed and power and the like. Frank Thomas remembered that he was old and not on illegal enhancers. Lyle Overbay remembered that he’s not necessarily particularly good. David Eckstein remained as scrappy as Popeye. He didn’t forget to be mediocre offensively either.

I found it a little surreal when the Blue Jays rehired Cito Gaston to be their manager last year. He was the manager of the early 90s Jays. Maybe they were hoping he could bring a little of the old magic with him. It's halfway to hogwash, but there's something to be said for the muscle memory of winning. Knowing in your body that something can happen makes it more accessible. It's not a prerequisite, and you still have to be good, and even the losers get lucky sometimes, but mindset matters.

People say that the Blue Jays are just behind the other three talent-wise, and would be favored to win just about any other division, but they are where they are, and if it doesn't work out this year they need to think about starting over and looking more toward 2011 and 2012. They would have the best tradables on the market, and they could stop being a team that "should" finish higher, but never does. The clowns and the jokers have passed them, and one way or another the Toronto Blue Jays must figure out how to unstick themselves from the middle.

Relief

2008-12-28T14:00:00.000-08:00

I am pleased that we got K-Rod and thrilled we got Putz.
I am neither pleased nor thrilled with their names. I kind of think K-Rod is a dumb nickname, but I can't stop using it. Francisco Rodriguez feels like a cumbersome title- as if I'm also using his middle name and an honorific. I'm not sure what my beef with "K-Rod" is. It's not really that bad. I just have odd mental rules about naming someone after what they do (the K is for strikeout). I think if we're calling him "strikeout-Rod" he ought to be freaky good at striking people out. Please hold while I capture some hard data on that with some of my internets.

In 2002, Mr. K recorded 17 regular season outs, 13 of which were strikeouts. That is absolutely worthy of the name K-Rod. Still, when Benny Agbayani made his major league debut, he whacked an absurd 10 home runs in 73 at bats, but no one coronated him "Benny Agbayhomerunny" or even "Ag-homer." A nickname like K-Rod needs to be earned. Last year Rodriguez struck out 10.14 batters per 9 innings, which is really good, but plenty (14) relievers were better. The two years before he was better with a 12.03 K/9 in '07 and 12.08 in '06, good enough for fifth both times.

I'd say K-Rod has been good enough to maintain his nickname, but if you were starting from scratch, you might give him a more conservative "F-Rod," which would be a good support base for the Mets' next up and coming potential star, F-Mart (Fernando Martinez). Now, K-Mart, if, for the sake of argument/ramblement, Rodriguez and Martinez were to swap last names, K-Mart I would be more lenient with, because of the accidental department store crossover.

As for our other big-name bullpen acquisition, Mr. J.J. Putz- love it. Love. It. For all the fliff-splashing the Bronxasaurus has been doing, I think the Putz trade might be the best move of the offseason. It makes the Mets bullpen go from passable to great. It means that K-Rod can be the capital c Closer while Putz can be used where he's needed most, sometimes getting outs more crucial to a win than the final 3, and that's good news, because from what I hear, Putz is the better pitcher.

It also means that at some point in the year, Putz will blunder and give up a lead, and the New York Post will print a picture on the back page of J.J. with his head hung, possibly with an opposing player circling the bases in the background, and the headline will read "What a Putz." This, like the economic slide and the end of the Long Count, is not a negotiable outcome. It is a certainty. A when, not an if. Why oh why does anyone read the New York Post.

D. Murphy,

2008-08-10T19:52:00.001-07:00

The Mets have an exciting young second baseman with good plate discipline and power. This is good for my soul. I've been eating too much junk food, but tomorrow I might get a car, and if the Mets keep playing this guy, and he keeps doing well, and I drive my car to quality grocery stores, then both me and the Mets will have good plate discipline and power.

Central

2008-08-10T19:33:00.000-07:00

Here I am, awash in North Carolina, soothing my nerves with reports about baseball and this and that. Soon we'll have VPs and conventions and debates. The world series will happen and then it won't matter and then we'll look back on it all and know more about what it all means. Bernie Mac died two days ago. Isaac Hayes died today or yesterday. Morgan Freeman got in a car accident. Keep breathing everyone. Notice your breath. Notice the sky. Be aware of bears and baseballs.

The A.L. Central is upside down. Of course, this statement defies reality. The A.L. Central is what it is. The Tigers are looking raggedy. Their hair is messed up. They are sleepy. Every once in a while they take down a bison and we all nod our heads and say "Yes, these are the tigers we know. The ones we have read about. The ones that will rise to the top of the mountain," but it seems that will not happen during this administration. If I were them I would donate $1000 for every homerun hit to tiger conservation, and players signed through at least next year should give the legal max to Obama.

The Indians are fools. They are more talented than any of us, but they insist on losing. Chief Wahoo laughs at all of them. He is the most foolish but he gets the joke. I'm really excited about the Watchmen movie coming out (next year I think). The Cleveland Indian franchise should make a human-sized Chief Wahoo and burn it in effigy at Burning Man. They should get on that. I think Burning Man is coming up soon.

The Royals can be good or bad. Joe Posnanski will be brilliant either way. Still, I feel it is time for them to be good. As the Japanese say, please try it.

The White Sox and Twins are defying gravity. That's why I thought the division was upside down. The state of this division is a stark reminder in the difficulties of telling the future. Is it safe to say that this team would be in great shape if it had Johan Santana? Would his coming departure be too much of a distraction. The Marlins and Twins occupy a similar mental category for me. Feisty young teams that I am just now coming to accept as contenders. The Rays, Marlins and Twins might all win their divisions this year. The times they are a-changin'. I would try to explain it to North Carolina, but I don't know if it would be worth the considerable effort.

One third review

2008-05-29T13:59:00.000-07:00

So I take a break from blogging for a bit, thinking that the baseball world can right itself without me, and look what happens. The Rays, White Sox and Marlins are all still in first place. The Mets are playing more like a team that has a declining Delgado, a concussed Church, and Luis Castillo, then a team that has Wright, Reyes, Beltran and Santana. Do your thing Pedro.

Across the board, there are teams scrabbling with disappointment. Billy Beane once said that the first third of the season is for evaluating what you have, the second for getting what you need, the third for running and dancing. Something like that.

The Yankees are a game under .500. They'll rebound, but they have to accept that this might not be their year, and they were right to not give up the farm for Santana. They need to get healthy and play well. A contractual detox is on the way when Giambi et al come off the books at the end of the year. (Is Giambi done after this year?)

The A.L. Central needs to figure itself out. The Royals are bad. We get that. The two monsters are playing badly: The Indians are 24-29, but they've outscored their opponents. With little knowledge of their team, I'll say that they need to turn a minor leauger or another team's castoff into a bullpen monster. The Tigers don't look so hot. They need Jim Leyland to dance. They need a team dance. They need to get fans to do the dance without telling them to.

Seattle is done, AND they gave up the farm for Bedard. Oh well, I guess. They have some trade bait. They could trade Richie Sexson for a fish.

The Mets need magic. They're trying to win with bats and throws. The problem with the long season is that it can iron away all belief in magic. Maybe doing that at the beginning of this year will leave plenty of time in the latter half for belief. Two rays of hope: Pedro is coming back. I don't know if he'll stablize everything, but I do know that he is a magician. His magic takes a toll on his body, but just seeing the impossible things he does might wake up this team. The second one is that Edgardo Alfonzo is in the organization. This will mean little to nothing on the field, but karmically it's huge. At some point, the Mets need to find a wonderful young second baseman, start Alfonzo for a game, and then put the new guy in. Luis Castillo can be a useful bench player or someone else's player.

I'm not sure what my beef with Castillo is. I guess I'm just frustrated with how the Mets seem to think he's the same guy he was ten years ago. It makes me miss Fonzie all the more. Also, for the record, I always suspected Jeff Keppinger would be good.

Uncertain Times for Kyle Lohse

2008-04-30T22:38:00.000-07:00

Among the more baffling things of last offseason was how things played out with Kyle Lohse. While the trade winds were blowing, multiple teams were thinking about offering him around $27M for 3 seasons. Maybe more when all was said and done. When the winds stopped, no one would take him for 1 year, $7M. Maybe less. That's pretty cheap starting pitcher depth for a number of contending teams. I still don't get it. He ended up a Cardinal on a one year contract for 4 and a quarter. Through six starts he's doing quite well.

Thus far he's 3-0 with a 2.36 ERA. That's not likely to last for a whole season, but it seems the alchemists Duncan and La Russa have turned him into a different pitcher. He's giving up a lot of hits, but not walking many, and his groundball ratio is way up. Hitters seem to have no trouble making contact off him, but they're not doing much damage. Through 34.1IP, he hasn't given up a single homer. A lot of people have looked like someone they're not over six starts, but Lohse is working with one of the best pitching coaches in the business, and it will be interesting to see how long and how well he can keep this up. Especially because if the Red Birds are serious about stealing the division, people like him are going to have to do things like what he's doing now.

Raw baseball

2008-04-27T10:06:00.000-07:00

The wonderful Peter Gammons has a piece on how the crackdown on illegal muscle and attention enhancers has favored the players who are more naturally vivacious: the young ones. It's pretty dead-on, and it makes me nervous for the near-future of my Mets. Every year a few kids show up and change the entire look of a bullpen. Position players and starters can make a big enough splash to vault their team into the playoffs. I still have high hopes and expectations for the boys of Queens, but I think our unexpected farm help won't go much beyond a couple of good starts from the inevitably unexciting Nelson Figueroa.

Here's my long term solution for baseball: raw food.
I'm not joking at all. Here's why:
Do you know any raw foodists? There's something different about them. They have a palpable glow. They grin, laugh, hug. They never seem to get tired. That's what I find compelling, but from a baseball standpoint, the benefits are clear and tangible:
1) Increased energy. More than the muscle-building PEDs, with their often easy-to-point-to effects, I suspect amphetamines had the larger impact on the game. Everyone benefits from extra energy and focus. Baseball seasons are really long, and there are far more uninteresting at-bats than "big" ones. A little extra jazz in your step keeps you tuned in, and gives you more energy to work with.
The most commonly sited raw food benefit is abundant energy.

2) Better senses. Lasik eye surgery has been shown to increase batting averages. Makes plenty of sense- if you have better vision, you get a better look at pitch speed, type, spin, direction, etc. Committed raw foodies report better vision, hearing, taste, etc.

3) Faster injury recovery. When the body is not taxed by improper nutrition, it is better equipped to deal with upsets when they occur.

From a baseball perspecitve, a raw food diet is like amphetamines, Lasik and HGH rolled into one. The cost of raw food is an issue for some, but not for any baseball player. The main issue for them would be convenience. Going out to eat can make things difficult, and all the travel would complicate things. So yes, it would be something they'd have to commit to. Lots of people wouldn't get it and/or would make fun of them, these hypothetical raw-foodist big league baseball players. But wouldn't it be worth it? And wouldn't nutrition at its finest be a great thing for baseball to put on display?
Prince Fielder's a vegittarean. The times they are a-changin.

Mets v. Cubs: A Retrospective

2008-04-23T21:49:00.000-07:00

Yesterday I managed to get out of the house, and found myself at Wrigley field to watch the Mets take on the Cubs. I had a good time, despite spending the game in a cloud of 6th graders, most of whom didn't seem aware that there was some sort of contest happening on a nearby field. I also didn't get the blues when the Mets walked away 8-1 losers. Here are some thoughts on the game, by position:

Mets pitchers: Nelson Figueroa, a brief feel-good story to distract us from the feel-bad story of Pedro and Duque's health- was exposed by the Cubs good lineup. He looked in control on the first go through the order, but my nervousness mounted in any inning after that. He was lucky to let in only 3- it could have been a lot more. Then, after Smith and Schoeneweis tag-teamed through the evening innings, Jorge Sosa was brought in to guide us to the night. Sosa stayed in way too long. By the time he was out, the game was effectively over, because he gave up a grand slam to Ronny Cedeno. Heilman warmed up, but didn't come in. Was Willie saving him for a game he thought the team might win?

First base: The Cubs ended up winning by 7, but 5 or 6 of those runs were allowed to happen because of close plays at first base, both of which could have been avoided with some good D. With two outs and the pitcher batting, the Mets, mostly Figueroa from my replayless look, botched an awkward tapper to first. The next batter knocked in two with a single. Later the Cubs were up 4-1 with the bases loaded and one out in the 8th. Groundball to Reyes at short, who gets the force at home. Catcher Casanova swings it to first, but the runner is barely safe (he may have even been out, but it was really close). That would have ended the inning, and had Reyes gone to 2nd instead of home, he probably would have gotten both. Instead, up came strutting Ronny, who gave it a good whack and heard the cheers.

Second base: I’ll be honest. I love Wright, Reyes and Beltran, but I miss Edgardo Alfonzo, John Olerud and Mike Piazza. I think, since the acquisition of Roberto Alomar, the Mets second base situation has not been right. We could use another corner guy who can smack the ball around, but what I would really love is the second coming of Alfonzo. He was the perfect 2. He played a great second base, he had average speed, he could handle the bat beautifully, and he hit for power. He made a lot of Met leadoff men look good as long as they could get on base some of the time. Hitting third was the wonderful stoic professional named John Olerud. My favorite Olerud story isn't a real story, just a moment in time described by the Times to start an article: John Olerud and Al Leiter taking a cab to Shea (though Olerud actually took the train a lot of the time). Leiter was his usual hyper self, verbosely explaining his plan for the first and second times through the lineup. I imagine Olerud, quietly, almost spookily engaged- like how I imagine Calvin Coolidge. While Leiter chatters and gesticulates, Olerud is simply there.

I read somewhere that the Mets had signed Edgardo Alfonzo to a minor league deal. I hope he starts at least one game for the professional ballclub this year. Maybe a whole series. It will be a healing ritual for the Mets second base situation.

Third base: David Wright is my favorite player. I haven’t had a real favorite baseball player in a while. I also love Reyes and Santana, but there’s just nothing not to like about Wright.

Outfield: The Mets offense, outside of the big 3, was exposed. With Ryan Church out of the lineup, and Delgado something of an unknown quantity at this point, the Mets lineup felt like three really dangerous hitters excessively cushioned by a bunch of guys who might hit a single. What it would take to get Jason Bay? What kind of contract is Boras going to try to get Texiera next season? F-Mart is really still a year or so away, right? Church, Delgado and Alou can all help, but question marks linger. The bottom of the lineup just doesn’t put a lot of pressure on opposing pitchers or punish them for taking them lightly. This makes the big 3 easier to handle.

The crowd: I have learned much about energy, especially human energy since the last time I went to a live baseball game. I could palpably feel the energy of the crowd, and I took a moment to channel it toward a cause or two that I deemed worthy. I don’t know if I did a lot, but I do feel confident that I did a little.

Hooray! The Mets are Good

2008-04-16T01:43:00.000-07:00

Last night, there was a whole lot of good in the Met world. The more it happens, the easier it is for it to happen again the next time. Situational muscles can develop and atrophy just like will power and real muscles. Some nice truths got a workout last night. Among them:

1) They were good. Nothing succeeds like success. You gotta have heart, but you also gotta have pitch movement and bat speed. Winning tends to make teammates like each other more, and be more into the idea of fighting for each other.
2) Reyes was Reyes. Two singles, a double and a triple. When Reyes is good, he plays with a fire and a joy that bring out the same in others. Not only that, but he can really friggin play. When he's SupeReyes, he's on the short short list of best players in the game right up there with...
3) Wright was awesome. You can be sure of two things in life: The sun loves you, and David Wright will mash.
4) Exactly what we wanted to see from Pelfrey and Sanchez. Pelfrey wasn't perfect, but he didn't give up any runs either, and he had a great four inning stretch. I dream of John Maine II. Originally I thought the consistency of Santana and Maine would be a great support base for Perez and Pedro this year. That may shake out to be true in the summer, but right now it looks like Pelfrey is the #1 benefactor, and that's mega awesome. Oh and Duaner Sanchez pitched in a major league baseball game and didn't get hammered. Let's see more of that too.
5) The lineup switcheroo. Willie moved Ryan Church up to second between Reyes and Wright, and Luis Castillo down to 8th. I like this lineup better with someone with a little pop in the 2-spot. The second leadoff guy thing works best when it's an Edgar Renteria type who can hurt you on his own- someone you'd like to see in a number of situations. I'm still scratching my head over signing Castillo for four years. At this point in his career, he needs to sneak everywhere. Sneak on base, sneak to the next base. He doesn't have much "This is what I'm going to do, and you probably can't stop it." Not that he isn't useful, but he might as well be doing that from the 8th spot. The pitcher can bunt him over, Reyes can slap him in. Church backing up Delgado and Alou is okay, but having him bat second feels more dynamic. More playing to win than not to lose. I feel he could really help the team if put in the right situation.

Hope for more good things today.

Magic Maddux

2008-04-14T20:26:00.001-07:00

ESPN the Magazine has a cool piece on Greg Maddux. Maddux has been written about a ton, but I did get a nugget or two that I hadn't heard before. The one that's stuck in my head: he some times changes pitches in the middle of his windup! He's not just being indecisive, he adjusts based on the batter's stance. Does anyone else do this? I realize not everyone can, but does anyone try? How many pitchers have even thought to?

Can we inject Maddux's pitching intelligence into every other pitcher and see what happens? How fun would a Maddux-Verlander hybrid be. Someone get on that.

Lord Stanley

2008-04-09T22:29:00.000-07:00

It's a secret that no one tries to keep, much like professional hockey itself. Actually, we hockey fans say it every year, right around this time, but when we do, we're already talking about hockey, so you've probably stopped listening. Anyway, here it is: hockey has the best playoffs of any sport. I'm not here to prove it to you, and I won't even try too hard to convince you, but those of use who have been through a full marathon of the Stanley Cup playoffs know that there's nothing like it. With a few game 1s already done, I'll offer up a few thoughts on this year's tournament.

The East
1. Montreal Canadiens vs. 8. Boston Bruins
Montreal did something gutsy at the trade deadline. While most contenders were vying for a big name to add, the Canadiens traded their backup goaltender for a second round draft pick. For those of you who understand metaphors better than hockey, that's like trading all the eggs in your second basket, leaving you with one basket that looks really promising, but that you've never taken on a long journey before. That basket, Carey Price, is a rookie. He's been good, really good, so far, but now it's the playoffs, and all kinds of things can happen. If he rides the faith put in him, the Canadiens could go far. If he falters, they have no chance.

Running start for him and them: Habs in 5

2. Pittsburgh Penguins vs. 7. Ottawa Senators
For all of last year, and the start of this one, the Senators were the bullies of Canada. At present, they seem to have consolidated into a speed bump in the path of a herd of frolicking penguins. Those penguins are getting their first real taste of life among the big creatures. If they can stay united and keep their beaks sharp, they will do well. The goalie sitch seems to favor them, but if that turns, so could the series.

Probably not though: Pens in 6

3. Washington Capitals vs. 6. Philadelphia Flyers
Battle of the comeback kids. 3-6 matchups can be misleading because the Caps earned the 3 spot by winning their division, not by having the 3rd most points. Still, they have one utterly relentless Russian, a player who was the game's best some years ago, and a goalie, who up until the trade deadline was the backup for Montreal. Philly can bully, and has some sunshine in the future. They'll do their best to push Ovechkin around, but he's a kid in a candy store.

Caps in 7

4. New Jersey Devils vs. 5. New York Rangers
Oh man. I really can't separate my personal feelings from any analysis of this series. The Devils are my team. Martin Brodeur is my favorite player on any team in any sport. New Jersey is an exceptionally well run franchise, and that makes me happy. Late-ish in the season, the Devils were 1st in the East, at least for a day or two, and that also makes me happy.
But I just can't help thinking that this series belongs to the Devils' biggest rival. It just makes sense. The Rangers play in the biggest market, have imported and home-grown star power, and play in a building that is aching for success (and no, firing Isiah Thomas doesn't count as success... WHAT? THEY STILL HAVEN'T FIRED HIM?). The Devils are notorious for turning hockey into what one opposing coach once called a "chess match." Now I love chess and the Devils, but they do need a little more speed and scoring touch. Maybe a first round loss would be a kick in the pants for them. As for the Strangers, it's their time to channel their considerable talent into a playoff run. Something to get New York excited.
Still, I'd just love to see Brodeur steal this thing and go on another magical playoff run.

That's enough for now. Hockey's an acquired taste. Go out there and acquire it.

The Conversation

2008-04-03T23:53:00.000-07:00

Tonight, while waiting for the Belmont bus to take me home, a man spoke to me unprovoked, as if we’d been speaking for a while. I had sized him up as I was walking over. The first thing I noticed was his Detroit Red Wings jacket. I considered starting a hockey conversation, but first I wanted to check if he was homeless. Well, homeless isn’t the word I’m looking for. I mean drunk, poor guy on the street who isn’t quite sure how to make sense to people. This wasn’t that kind of guy. He could have been drunk, I wasn’t sure, and he hadn’t shaved in a while, but, then, neither have I. His hands shook as he lit his cigarettes. It was a covered bus stop, and I leaned against a holographic car ad. I’m okay with cars having advertisements, though your average car ad is 98-100% imagery, 0-2% facts about the car. There aren’t too many types of cars… ok there are zillions of car types, but I imagine that when you’re buying a car, there are a limited, containable number of models that you seriously consider. Maybe it’s kind of like picking colleges. You select a few favorites and then hope that one accepts you.

I had no New Jersey Devils regalia or paraphernalia or anything that might have suggested I knew a thing about sports. I was wearing a slightly too small jacket, a purple sweatshirt, black cargo pants, brown shoes and a small beige backpack. The man turned to me and said, “The Blackhawks got eliminated tonight.” He had practically continued the conversation I imagined as I walked over where I started by asking if he was a Red Wings fan. He never actually said that he was, but he referred to the Wings as “us.” We talked about hockey until the bus came. As he payed to get on, he told the busdriver: “Blackhawks got eliminated tonight.” I really wonder what the busdriver thought that meant. I doubt it really registered. We talked about hockey on the bus, until he got off four blocks later.

I can’t always tell what to make of sports in our world. It’s a story generator that has nothing to do with anything else. Inevitably we find humanity within the system. We find truth in the way these humans follow the mental structure of the game. Stay on the green part, not the grey part. When this thing happens, run in a straight line to that pillow on the ground. Watch out for the others, but they’ll only get in your way under certain conditions. Quickly it turns into a language and stories, reports and poems are written with the cameras on and the crowd screaming. That’s what I wanted to say- that I can’t quite place my feelings about sports in this world, but it is definitely something larger than itself. Here this man was, and the only thing on his mind, the thing he wanted to tell everyone was that there was a violent ice dance on the other side of town.

If I Was Alex Rodriguez...

2008-04-03T23:50:00.000-07:00

I'd be friggin terrified right now. And I might sacrifice a goat or two. It'd be annoying tabloid fodder, but probably worth it.

Day 1

2008-03-30T20:51:00.000-07:00

Opening Day brings a mix of emotions. Excitement and clean happiness. I feel pleasantly American. Grass and mitts. Optimism is the rule.

Then a sigh as I gaze over the marathon before us. Baseball seasons are, first and foremost, long. They are a lot of other things, but the one things they are consistently is long. Starting one is like starting a really long novel. If you're going to get to the end, you're in it for the long haul. I wonder if Carlos Delgado will be good.

I read about the first game, Nationals 3, Braves 2, and I can't help finding too much meaning in it. Odalis Perez leaves after 5 innings and 70 pitches. Did Manny Acta want him to leave on a good note? Were his pitches losing their bite? Did Acta want to get more pitchers in to soak up the opening day excitement? Will anyone take this team seriously when their opening day starter is Odalis Perez? I don't have as many questions about the Braves, because I'm confident that they're offense is better than this. I know about them, so I can ignore an isolated game. The Nationals, though- what's their deal? Uncertainties in my mind cling to whatever info I give them.

Tomorrow my boys will play, and the left side of their infield can go 0 for 10 and I won't worry too much, but if the less talented right side does the same, I might bite a nail or two. Why did we give Luis Castillo four years? If a younger, better, 2b comes along, Omar won't hesitate, will he? We need someone who can break the curse of Edgardo Alfonzo.

I'm getting ahead of myself. We'll have more time to talk about all that, and a few more at bats to work with. For now, it's just nice to know that there's a wacky offseason behind us, and a long haul in front.

Mets' Rotation

2008-03-24T09:56:00.000-07:00

Today I'll take a peak at the Mets' starters. I used '08 projections for some numerical grounding, but these stories could go in a lot of different directions. The tables come from Marcel the Monkey via baseballmusings.com.

First the Mets:


Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Johan Santana	193	71	3.31
Pedro Martinez	87	38	3.93
John Maine	163	73	4.03
Oliver Perez	160	80	4.50
Orlando Hernandez	148	74	4.50
Totals	751	336	4.03

Santana looks a little conservative here. Those are fine numbers, but we're talking about possibly the best pitcher around moving to a pitcher's park in a pitcher's league (and he can hit!). He could be a real monster. Hard to know what to make of Pedro. If he's healthy he's a magician, and he could outperform those numbers by a lot. He could also go 2-2 with 50 innings and no one would act surprised. That's the thing with projecting Pedro: it divides us into cynics, optimists and uncertaintists. I know where my loyalties lie- Pedro '08: 16-8, 149 IP, 3.76 ERA.

Some are predicting that Maine will go from solid citizen to star. He's in a good spot to try it behind Johan and Pedro. As for Enigma Perpetual, he's a Boras client in his walk year on a contending team, so he should be motivated. The Mets' 1 and 3 are dependable with the potential to find the upper range of their possibilities. 2 and 4, are less predicatable, each with the potential for greatness or frustration.

In the fifth spot are two sides of a strange coin.

There's Mike Pelfrey, age 24, plenty of potential, has a great fastball, but needs to develop his other pitches.
On the flipside is El Duque, age unknown, this may be his last season, rarely breaks the low 80s on the radar gun, but almost never throws the same pitch twice.

If only we could combine them.

M.L.B. '08 Preview: American League

2008-03-22T01:56:00.000-07:00

Continuing with my shockingly accurate predictions for the upcoming baseball season, in this post I'll do the American League. This year in the American League, There Will Be Blood. Mostly metaphorical. There will be ferocious battles across the board. Teams that haven't spoken for a while will make themselves heard, and teams whose voices we know will speak in different ways. It should be fun.

The A.L. East
Barring a surprise or two, this is baseball's most talented division. The Yankees and Red Sox are titans, the Blue Jays are good enough to win the division if everything goes right for them, and the devilish Rays are feisty and on the rise.
1. The Red Sox
This may be the one team where you look at who they have, and you whisper "yikes." Theo Epstien is the current master of the big budget. Cashman has a chance to close the gap next offseason, but the Red Sox enter this year as the titan on top of the mountain.
2. The Yankees
The rival titan is also really good, but their pitching situation is a little bizarre, and that's asking for trouble. They really need at least one rookie starter to have a good year (by non-rookie standards) and they might need more than that. I think they'll get most of that, and they'll score bunches of runs, which always helps. No matter what they should be pretty entertaining. Sub-prediction: Joe Girardi has a coughing fit (or something similar) in the dugout (it's nothing serious).
3. The Blue Jays
These birds have put together a pretty good team, potentially good enough to knock down one of the titans, but they need a lot to go right, and they don't seem like the sort of team that invites everything to go right for them. That's the thing with these pretty good mercenary teams. Without that youthful buzz, it's hard to imagine them playing way above their heads for a stretch and rattling off 12 games in a row. With home growns who played together in the minors and haven't gotten over the thrill of being on a major league baseball field, they can all get on the same wavelength and collectively go berserk for a while (see the Rox and Phils of '07). For the Blue Jays to do that, they'll need a little more luck.

One solid divide between baseball analysts who are grounded in numbers, and ones who are supplemented by numbers is their opinion of "scrappy" players. Those players who lack elegance, but make up for it with hustle and heart. Grounder analysts point out the low OBP, and that they're defense is more animalistic than good. Flyer analysts talk about how they "energize the lineup" and "make everyone work." The grounders make fun of the flyers. The flyers sigh and look at the grounders like they majored in Soul Draining.

I can't deny that making outs kill innings, and getting on base creates runs. Any player who's not getting on base at a decent clip had better be making up for it with something else in a big way. The question: does inspiration of others cover the value gap? I say not over a long season, but there are moments where it's an undeniable influence. Someone puts in an exceptional amount of energy, and it ends up making a tangible difference-they beat out a grounder, they crash into something bordering the field, they trample the catcher- and others are inspired to try and match that commitment.

Ideally- perhaps this is obvious- a player should be both. The real legends are the ones with huge talent that show consistent physical commitment. Gretzky, Messier, Jordan, Bird, Tiger Woods (I'm talking team sports here, but I feel Tiger's good enough to mention), Mays, Rose, Jeter, many more. Those guys changed lots of games, and lots of lives.

Among the Blue Jays' mercenaries is the quintessential scrapper: shortstop David Eckstein. Some practically credit him (and Adam Wainwright's devastating curveball) with the Cardinals' '06 championship. The hope is that he can fire up these Blue Birds the way he did for the Red Birds and help them rise up the mountain to topple a titan or two. (Also among the mercenaries: Frank Thomas, now just a useful part, but once was the quintessential talent+work player. In his prime he was on another planet from everybody else.)

They're very talented, and if everyone stays healthy, they could be a force, but baseball seasons are long, and I don't see these guys being good enough for long enough. Eckstien will be his same old self, but blue doesn't respond to his fire the way red does, and enthusiasm has a synergistic effect with Tony La Russa, which amplified Eckstien's effect in St. Louis, but won't work as well in Toronto. Scrappiness will be good for them, but it will only affect them to a point.

It's too bad, because with the titans' young pitching still developing, this may be the Jays best chance in a while. There will be some really good free agents next year, and the Yankees will have millions of Andrew Jacksons that they will be willing to spend. It appears that the next team to topple one or both titans will be not be a bird but...
4. The Rays
Formerly the Devil Rays. They took the Devil out of their name and instituted a $1 fine for calling them the "Devil Rays." Personally I'm hoping to get fined- I could use the publicity. The Drays were laughable two years ago, and every year of their existence before that. This year they have a real shot to win more games than they lose, and I've heard people say that they'll contend late into the season (though the playoff predictions will probably have to wait until next year, and the playoffs themselves will have to wait until 2010). I think they'll be a fun team, but they'll lose to the Jays too many times, and they'll lose to the Red Sox a normal amount of times (Again: the Red Sox are really good). Yankees-Rays games look to be entertaining for a long time to come (and not just because they're currently mad at each other). Scott Kazmir, who still makes me wistful over what could have been had the Mets not GIVEN HIM AWAY, will have a long successful career of tormenting the Yankees (even if he's on them).
5. The Orioles
The long-overdue firesale finally happened. They still have to build a new house, but at least they finally got around to blowing up the old one. Postdiction (it can't be a prediction because it's about stuff that's already happened): Melvin Mora has stories that would blow your mind and freeze your blood. Maybe literally.

A.L. Central
The East has two titans. The Central has two dragons. Its equivalents of the Jays and Rays, the White Sox and Twins respectively, are not as good as their counterparts, and this may allow both dragons to reach the postseason (which would mean that one titan, probably the Yankees would miss the playoffs).
1. The Tigers
Dragon numero uno with a fire-breathing lineup. Some pitching depth questions, but everyone's got those. I also think Dontrelle is going to have a blast and be really good. He'll get hit around at points in the middle of the season when the A.L. gets used to his gangly jangly windup, but then he'll adjust and be good again. The pitching won't be as bad as it might be, and there will be days when it won't matter. No one will know for sure if there is actually more sunshine in Detroit or if it just feels that way.
2. The Indians
The second dragon, with less firepower but more precision. The maidens and knights in the Central will do their best, but most know it's hopeless. This dragon is very good, but there is a soft spot or two that a hobbit could find. They'll win a world series as soon as they change that stupid logo.
3. The White Sox
The White Knight gears up and gets ready to take his best hack. Hey, you don't know what will happen. They'll be good. They'll fight strong and true. Maybe they'll win 120 games. No matter what they'll have their valor. The White Knight might be able to occupy one dragon, but against two it has no shot. Still, it's nice that they're trying.
4. The Royals
I like the Royals. Joe Posnanski is somewhere between 85 to 100% responsible for this. I also like Brian Bannister. Brain is 50-100% responsible for that, and JoePo is 0-45%.
5. The Twins
Hey Minnesota. So, how's it going? Al Franken's interesting, isn't he? I just wanted to say thanks for Santana. I hope it wasn't weird for you. I bet Gomez and Guerra will both be really good, and I know you'll make good use of Humber and Mulvey. I thought the Young-Garza trade was win-win. People always talk about who "won" the trade, but they got needed good young pitching (the hottest commodity around) and you got a future superstar. Your team is a pitcher and a year or two away from being really good again. All best-
Owen P. (Mets fan, and friend of Minnesota)

While the White Knights dance and brandish wooden swords, another dragon is brewing.

A.L. West
The story is evolving all the time, but we can say with reasonable certainty that this division has two contenders and two nots and nothing else. The angels are a little broken and bruised and will need to heal up during the first half of the season. If they can come together soon enough, they should win, but the Mariners aren't joking around. This one should have good tension most or all of the year, especially if the Mariners sign Barry Bonds (do it!).
1. The Angels
They'll make it. I love the angels. They play an overt psychological game. They are aggressive, constantly challenging opponents to deliver. That's why they just can't help spending money on centerfielders. It'll be a good race, but I don't think they'll really have to worry unless the injuries get worse not better, or everything goes well for...
2. The Mariners
Looking at the Mariners is like eyeing the guys that form the group at the beginning of The Usual Suspects. They're definitely interesting. Could be quite powerful if they can all work together. It could shake out in a lot of different ways. Go all in. Sign Barry Bonds. You need each other. Even if you trade for Griffey (do it!) you still need Bonds. Your DH is friggin Jose Vidro. Even as a DH he could use some days off, and you'll be able to use that spot for Griffey (or Sexton, or whoever). You already payed an average starting pitcher like a king and traded your biggest young talent. Complete the trifecta by signing the current most contreversial figure in sports.
3. The Rangers
The bottom half of this division doesn't exactly hold my attention. This, and that of the N.L. Central look to be the two most boring bottom halfs of divisions... in a six team league... with three divisions of five.... The Rangers won't be particularly good, but it won't be a disappointment, and people will talk about their young players in good terms. They'll win about the same number of games as the Astros, be equally (ir)relevant, but be a little jollier doing it.
The A's
Basically the same deal as the Rangers, but filtered through the interesting character of Billy Beane. I wonder if he's subconsciously motivated by a desire to be the most interesting GM with the most boring team. Someone cook me up statistical measures of Team Boringness, Player Scrappiness and Influence on Others. Bonus points if you can use them on things other than baseball.

Awards
A.L. MVP
Vladimir Guerrero (he's Dominican, right? Where does the "Vladimir" come from?) unless the battle among and between the titans and dragons demands the medal. If that's the case I'll say it's Manny, Cano, M. Cabrera or Sizemore depending on how the teams fall. Who gets the MVP can be a little arbitrary, so it's kind of more fun just to predict who each team's best player will be.

A.L. Cy Young
Well there's Felix and Bedard. Wang will be good, but someone else will be better. Lackey's hurt to start the season, so he'd have to be a monster to win it (though if he leads an angel resurgence...). Fausto and C.C. will be in the mix, as will Josh Beckett and Roy Halladay. Of those four, I like Fausto Carmona and Halladay. I also think Matsuzaka has a shot to be significantly better this year- there may just be some magic we haven't seen- but it's more likely that he'll simply be a 7 on a scale from 1 to 10 (which will win plenty of games).
The pick: Francisco Liriano
The Twins will have enough offense to win him some games, and barring an injury, I bet he'll be freaky good.

Rookie of the Year
Evan Longoria, unless Clay Buckholtz happens to get a lot of good publicity for doing something (like hammering out some sensible legislation to address the "foreclosure crisis").

Also
At least three umpires will start blogs.

Playoffs
Who does get that wildcard? The second dragon, the second titan or the Mariners? For starters, not the Mariners. I say the Indians beat out the Yankees. Too much of the Yankees pitching will need to rely on fortune and veneer, and that won't quite do it in the A.L. these days. In that case,
The Indians beat the Red Sox (they'll win 3-1)
The Tigers beat the Angels (though in real life, the angels will save the tigers)
The Tigers beat the Indians (the Tigers' pitching will hold up enough, and you can't face the Sox then the Tigers without getting beat up some).

That leaves us with a Mets-Tigers World Series. Santana, Pedro, Maine/Perez vs. Verlander, Bonderman, Willis/Rodgers. Reyes, Wright, Beltran vs. Granderson, Cabrera, Ordonez. Randolph vs. Leyland. Duaner Sanchez beats Todd Jones. Mets in 7. Life is beautiful.

M.L.B. '08 Preview: National League

2008-03-22T01:55:00.000-07:00

N.L. East
The Braves were finally dethroned two years ago, and the Mets collapsed last year, so this division feels more wide open than it has in a while. Going in, there are three teams playing for the division and two playing for respect.
1. The Mets
This is their year, I swear. Last year the '86 championship turned old enough to drink, and things got ugly in the wee hours. Lesson learned, story changed, Johan Santana rides in wearing blue and orange armor. Everything he does is different, but looks the same. Pedro earns his contract, even if he has to pull a Dumbledore (or a Snape).
2. The Braves
The Braves will be talented and respectable as they transition to a new generation. The most important pieces of their team were amazing players about eight years ago. Think about the year 2000, and the degree to which things then are the same as now. That's about how good the Braves will be this year.
3. The Phillies
There was truth in their amazing surge last year, but perhaps not a sustaining truth. That can happen when you have no pitching. Sub-prediction: '08 Jimmy Rollins will resemble '07 Jose Reyes more than '07 Rollins, and vice-versa for Reyes.
4. The Nationals
Manny Acta will make fake thug Milledge great and real thug Dukes good. On some days the Nationals will be scary to play. On other days they will look like thugs with sticks, helplessly confined within the rules of civility and baseball.
5. The Marlins
I'm not actually sure what exactly a marlin is, but I think it's related to the dolphin, and therefore an acquatic mammal. Despite this, some people call them the "fish." Recommended viewing for all: The Blue Planet- a fantastic BBC series hosted by David Attenborough. I don't know much about the Marlins other than that I could almost cover their payroll.

N.L. Central
This division breaks cleanly into thirds: two contenders, two almosts, two nopes.
1. The Cubs
I originally picked the Brewers, because I don't like picking mercenaries over home-growners if they're close talent-wise, but the Cubes lineup should be really good, the pitching (barely) good enough, and winning sunny games at Wrigley while Sweet Lou dances and flails can make any group of mercenaries feel like a team. After 99 years of being lovable losers, this team could use a few imported soldiers.
2. The Brewers
The aforementioned home-growners. Sub-prediction/hope: Prince Fielder has a really really good year and inspires people old and young to become vegetarrians and live more conscious lifestyles. If their pitching comes together they could definitely take the division.
3. The Reds
They have a shot of jumping groups from almosts to contenders. They could also slip back to the nopes. By the end of this year, people will be predicting them to do well next year.
4. The Cardinals
In recent seasons the Cardinals have been great, then good, then average (when they somehow became great for a month and won the world series), then bad with a serious mind-body disconnect (exemplified by the feud between their mad scientist manager, and brooding, now ex-third baseman). This year they'll be a little better than bad, but not quite good. The mind-body harmonics are improving, and they still have Albert Pujols. The beast may recover and rise again, but it'll take at least a couple of years.
5. The Astros
By trading for the Orioles' Miguel Tejada, the Astros officially became the new Orioles: the team that keeps themselves out of last place by overpaying for veterans with dubious futures. If a strange man in a dark coat offers you a bet on the Astros' lack of success over the next five years, take it! The city of Houston will need to take a collective look in the mirror sometime in that span. I don't know much about the place, yet I feel confident enough to say: Houston, you have a problem.
6. The Pirates
They just signed a talented man named Snell to a sensible deal. These are the things you look for in predicting a promising future. While Houston digs deeper and deeper, Pittsburgh builds something powerful and beautiful. As for this year, they'll lose a bunch of games, and trade Jason Bay to the Mets.

N.L. West
This is maybe the most open division in baseball, with four of the five teams having a pretty decent shot at winning it. My guess is that when the numbers are crunched, Arizona, L.A., San Diego and Colorado will combine to have a 110% chance of taking first place, with SanFran balancing things out by having a -10% shot. The statistical simulations will have to be updated to include the number/concept i.
1. The Diamondbacks
Lots to like here. Really good pitching, talented fiery youngsters in the lineup, and a diamondback is a kind of snake! Somehow these snakes feel disaster-proof- that is, bad stuff may happen, but for them it won't be a disaster. Not many teams you can say that about.
2. The Dodgers
For years, the Dodgers have been a team that I've always counted on from a distance to disappoint their fans. There may have been a time when I took pleasure in this- but now I just see it as something that happens- not necessarily good or bad. This year I expect some typical grumbling and drama, but I also expect them to be pretty good. Joe Torre will be good for the L.A. environment, so long as his nerves aren't too frayed from New York, and the team will play through his karmic reunion with Scott Proctor's arm.
3. The Padres
The Padres are always a pleasant team. They play in sunny Sandy Eggo. They seem to have nice players. Their bullpens are always really good. they have pitchers I'd like to see succeed. They even have Jim Edmonds now, and he seems like a great guy. Yeah, I like the Padres.
4. The Rockies
Who/what are the Rockies? I think they're still figuring that out, and I'm happy for them that they had a truly amazing three weeks last year before waking up in the path of the Red Sox juggernaut. They'll be good enough this year, but as the season wears on, those three weeks will feel more and more like a dream. I also have this weird feeling that Troy Tulowitski will get hurt and miss a lot of the season. I just glanced at their roster, and reading his name felt like reading one of those headlines that are never nice to see: Tulowitski injures knee, may miss 2-3 months. Good luck Rox.
5. The Giants
I love San Francisco, and this team has a couple of great young pitchers. The problem I see with the Giants, is that compared to just about every other team, they're not very good at baseball.

As for the awards:
N.L. MVP
In the conv: Wright, Beltran, Reyes, Chipper J, Fielder, Aramis, Braun, Weeks, Months, Drew/Upton (but not really either one individually), Teixiera, Andruw J. The West is so balanced it's hard to imagine one person rising above the rest. Paradigms are shifting, people! Since when is the West a place associated with balance? Now, that's when.
Who gets it: The firstbaseman of the wild card team. Hmmm... Tex or Fielder? Braves or Brewers? That has a lot more to do with each teams' starting pitching than those two (but that's how these things tend to be decided). Alright, I'll say the Dodgers hang around till the end, but get too beat up by their own division and fall short. The Brewers' bullpen falls apart, and the Braves surprise in a great race led by NL MVP: Mark Teixiera (who goes on to sign with the Yankees for 7 years, $134M).

Cy Young
Johan Santana!

Rookie of the Year
Cueto?

Random
Feel good story: Dukes/Milledge
Feel bad story: Zito/Vizquel
Feel pleasant story: The Padres
General trends: A better blending of youth and experience than we're used to seeing. Players talking even more about things like fielding practice and hitting the cutoff man, at least three teams invent their own dance.

Playoffs
Mets beat the Snakes
Cubes beat the Braves
Mets beat the Cubs with me in attendance.

Stay tuned for the A.L.

Welcome to The Welcome Cat

2008-03-22T01:39:00.000-07:00

Wipe your feet on the welcome mat. Here we'll be telling beautiful truths and beautiful lies about (mostly) the sports world. Enjoy.