Day 1

Opening Day brings a mix of emotions. Excitement and clean happiness. I feel pleasantly American. Grass and mitts. Optimism is the rule.

Then a sigh as I gaze over the marathon before us. Baseball seasons are, first and foremost, long. They are a lot of other things, but the one things they are consistently is long. Starting one is like starting a really long novel. If you're going to get to the end, you're in it for the long haul. I wonder if Carlos Delgado will be good.

I read about the first game, Nationals 3, Braves 2, and I can't help finding too much meaning in it. Odalis Perez leaves after 5 innings and 70 pitches. Did Manny Acta want him to leave on a good note? Were his pitches losing their bite? Did Acta want to get more pitchers in to soak up the opening day excitement? Will anyone take this team seriously when their opening day starter is Odalis Perez? I don't have as many questions about the Braves, because I'm confident that they're offense is better than this. I know about them, so I can ignore an isolated game. The Nationals, though- what's their deal? Uncertainties in my mind cling to whatever info I give them.

Tomorrow my boys will play, and the left side of their infield can go 0 for 10 and I won't worry too much, but if the less talented right side does the same, I might bite a nail or two. Why did we give Luis Castillo four years? If a younger, better, 2b comes along, Omar won't hesitate, will he? We need someone who can break the curse of Edgardo Alfonzo.

I'm getting ahead of myself. We'll have more time to talk about all that, and a few more at bats to work with. For now, it's just nice to know that there's a wacky offseason behind us, and a long haul in front.

Mets' Rotation

Today I'll take a peak at the Mets' starters. I used '08 projections for some numerical grounding, but these stories could go in a lot of different directions. The tables come from Marcel the Monkey via baseballmusings.com.

First the Mets:

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Johan Santana	193	71	3.31
Pedro Martinez	87	38	3.93
John Maine	163	73	4.03
Oliver Perez	160	80	4.50
Orlando Hernandez	148	74	4.50
Totals	751	336	4.03

Santana looks a little conservative here. Those are fine numbers, but we're talking about possibly the best pitcher around moving to a pitcher's park in a pitcher's league (and he can hit!). He could be a real monster. Hard to know what to make of Pedro. If he's healthy he's a magician, and he could outperform those numbers by a lot. He could also go 2-2 with 50 innings and no one would act surprised. That's the thing with projecting Pedro: it divides us into cynics, optimists and uncertaintists. I know where my loyalties lie- Pedro '08: 16-8, 149 IP, 3.76 ERA.

Some are predicting that Maine will go from solid citizen to star. He's in a good spot to try it behind Johan and Pedro. As for Enigma Perpetual, he's a Boras client in his walk year on a contending team, so he should be motivated. The Mets' 1 and 3 are dependable with the potential to find the upper range of their possibilities. 2 and 4, are less predicatable, each with the potential for greatness or frustration.

In the fifth spot are two sides of a strange coin.

There's Mike Pelfrey, age 24, plenty of potential, has a great fastball, but needs to develop his other pitches.
On the flipside is El Duque, age unknown, this may be his last season, rarely breaks the low 80s on the radar gun, but almost never throws the same pitch twice.

If only we could combine them.

M.L.B. '08 Preview: American League

Continuing with my shockingly accurate predictions for the upcoming baseball season, in this post I'll do the American League. This year in the American League, There Will Be Blood. Mostly metaphorical. There will be ferocious battles across the board. Teams that haven't spoken for a while will make themselves heard, and teams whose voices we know will speak in different ways. It should be fun.

The A.L. East
Barring a surprise or two, this is baseball's most talented division. The Yankees and Red Sox are titans, the Blue Jays are good enough to win the division if everything goes right for them, and the devilish Rays are feisty and on the rise.
1. The Red Sox
This may be the one team where you look at who they have, and you whisper "yikes." Theo Epstien is the current master of the big budget. Cashman has a chance to close the gap next offseason, but the Red Sox enter this year as the titan on top of the mountain.
2. The Yankees
The rival titan is also really good, but their pitching situation is a little bizarre, and that's asking for trouble. They really need at least one rookie starter to have a good year (by non-rookie standards) and they might need more than that. I think they'll get most of that, and they'll score bunches of runs, which always helps. No matter what they should be pretty entertaining. Sub-prediction: Joe Girardi has a coughing fit (or something similar) in the dugout (it's nothing serious).
3. The Blue Jays
These birds have put together a pretty good team, potentially good enough to knock down one of the titans, but they need a lot to go right, and they don't seem like the sort of team that invites everything to go right for them. That's the thing with these pretty good mercenary teams. Without that youthful buzz, it's hard to imagine them playing way above their heads for a stretch and rattling off 12 games in a row. With home growns who played together in the minors and haven't gotten over the thrill of being on a major league baseball field, they can all get on the same wavelength and collectively go berserk for a while (see the Rox and Phils of '07). For the Blue Jays to do that, they'll need a little more luck.

One solid divide between baseball analysts who are grounded in numbers, and ones who are supplemented by numbers is their opinion of "scrappy" players. Those players who lack elegance, but make up for it with hustle and heart. Grounder analysts point out the low OBP, and that they're defense is more animalistic than good. Flyer analysts talk about how they "energize the lineup" and "make everyone work." The grounders make fun of the flyers. The flyers sigh and look at the grounders like they majored in Soul Draining.

I can't deny that making outs kill innings, and getting on base creates runs. Any player who's not getting on base at a decent clip had better be making up for it with something else in a big way. The question: does inspiration of others cover the value gap? I say not over a long season, but there are moments where it's an undeniable influence. Someone puts in an exceptional amount of energy, and it ends up making a tangible difference-they beat out a grounder, they crash into something bordering the field, they trample the catcher- and others are inspired to try and match that commitment.

Ideally- perhaps this is obvious- a player should be both. The real legends are the ones with huge talent that show consistent physical commitment. Gretzky, Messier, Jordan, Bird, Tiger Woods (I'm talking team sports here, but I feel Tiger's good enough to mention), Mays, Rose, Jeter, many more. Those guys changed lots of games, and lots of lives.

Among the Blue Jays' mercenaries is the quintessential scrapper: shortstop David Eckstein. Some practically credit him (and Adam Wainwright's devastating curveball) with the Cardinals' '06 championship. The hope is that he can fire up these Blue Birds the way he did for the Red Birds and help them rise up the mountain to topple a titan or two. (Also among the mercenaries: Frank Thomas, now just a useful part, but once was the quintessential talent+work player. In his prime he was on another planet from everybody else.)

They're very talented, and if everyone stays healthy, they could be a force, but baseball seasons are long, and I don't see these guys being good enough for long enough. Eckstien will be his same old self, but blue doesn't respond to his fire the way red does, and enthusiasm has a synergistic effect with Tony La Russa, which amplified Eckstien's effect in St. Louis, but won't work as well in Toronto. Scrappiness will be good for them, but it will only affect them to a point.

It's too bad, because with the titans' young pitching still developing, this may be the Jays best chance in a while. There will be some really good free agents next year, and the Yankees will have millions of Andrew Jacksons that they will be willing to spend. It appears that the next team to topple one or both titans will be not be a bird but...
4. The Rays
Formerly the Devil Rays. They took the Devil out of their name and instituted a $1 fine for calling them the "Devil Rays." Personally I'm hoping to get fined- I could use the publicity. The Drays were laughable two years ago, and every year of their existence before that. This year they have a real shot to win more games than they lose, and I've heard people say that they'll contend late into the season (though the playoff predictions will probably have to wait until next year, and the playoffs themselves will have to wait until 2010). I think they'll be a fun team, but they'll lose to the Jays too many times, and they'll lose to the Red Sox a normal amount of times (Again: the Red Sox are really good). Yankees-Rays games look to be entertaining for a long time to come (and not just because they're currently mad at each other). Scott Kazmir, who still makes me wistful over what could have been had the Mets not GIVEN HIM AWAY, will have a long successful career of tormenting the Yankees (even if he's on them).
5. The Orioles
The long-overdue firesale finally happened. They still have to build a new house, but at least they finally got around to blowing up the old one. Postdiction (it can't be a prediction because it's about stuff that's already happened): Melvin Mora has stories that would blow your mind and freeze your blood. Maybe literally.

A.L. Central
The East has two titans. The Central has two dragons. Its equivalents of the Jays and Rays, the White Sox and Twins respectively, are not as good as their counterparts, and this may allow both dragons to reach the postseason (which would mean that one titan, probably the Yankees would miss the playoffs).
1. The Tigers
Dragon numero uno with a fire-breathing lineup. Some pitching depth questions, but everyone's got those. I also think Dontrelle is going to have a blast and be really good. He'll get hit around at points in the middle of the season when the A.L. gets used to his gangly jangly windup, but then he'll adjust and be good again. The pitching won't be as bad as it might be, and there will be days when it won't matter. No one will know for sure if there is actually more sunshine in Detroit or if it just feels that way.
2. The Indians
The second dragon, with less firepower but more precision. The maidens and knights in the Central will do their best, but most know it's hopeless. This dragon is very good, but there is a soft spot or two that a hobbit could find. They'll win a world series as soon as they change that stupid logo.
3. The White Sox
The White Knight gears up and gets ready to take his best hack. Hey, you don't know what will happen. They'll be good. They'll fight strong and true. Maybe they'll win 120 games. No matter what they'll have their valor. The White Knight might be able to occupy one dragon, but against two it has no shot. Still, it's nice that they're trying.
4. The Royals
I like the Royals. Joe Posnanski is somewhere between 85 to 100% responsible for this. I also like Brian Bannister. Brain is 50-100% responsible for that, and JoePo is 0-45%.
5. The Twins
Hey Minnesota. So, how's it going? Al Franken's interesting, isn't he? I just wanted to say thanks for Santana. I hope it wasn't weird for you. I bet Gomez and Guerra will both be really good, and I know you'll make good use of Humber and Mulvey. I thought the Young-Garza trade was win-win. People always talk about who "won" the trade, but they got needed good young pitching (the hottest commodity around) and you got a future superstar. Your team is a pitcher and a year or two away from being really good again. All best-
Owen P. (Mets fan, and friend of Minnesota)

While the White Knights dance and brandish wooden swords, another dragon is brewing.

A.L. West
The story is evolving all the time, but we can say with reasonable certainty that this division has two contenders and two nots and nothing else. The angels are a little broken and bruised and will need to heal up during the first half of the season. If they can come together soon enough, they should win, but the Mariners aren't joking around. This one should have good tension most or all of the year, especially if the Mariners sign Barry Bonds (do it!).
1. The Angels
They'll make it. I love the angels. They play an overt psychological game. They are aggressive, constantly challenging opponents to deliver. That's why they just can't help spending money on centerfielders. It'll be a good race, but I don't think they'll really have to worry unless the injuries get worse not better, or everything goes well for...
2. The Mariners
Looking at the Mariners is like eyeing the guys that form the group at the beginning of The Usual Suspects. They're definitely interesting. Could be quite powerful if they can all work together. It could shake out in a lot of different ways. Go all in. Sign Barry Bonds. You need each other. Even if you trade for Griffey (do it!) you still need Bonds. Your DH is friggin Jose Vidro. Even as a DH he could use some days off, and you'll be able to use that spot for Griffey (or Sexton, or whoever). You already payed an average starting pitcher like a king and traded your biggest young talent. Complete the trifecta by signing the current most contreversial figure in sports.
3. The Rangers
The bottom half of this division doesn't exactly hold my attention. This, and that of the N.L. Central look to be the two most boring bottom halfs of divisions... in a six team league... with three divisions of five.... The Rangers won't be particularly good, but it won't be a disappointment, and people will talk about their young players in good terms. They'll win about the same number of games as the Astros, be equally (ir)relevant, but be a little jollier doing it.
The A's
Basically the same deal as the Rangers, but filtered through the interesting character of Billy Beane. I wonder if he's subconsciously motivated by a desire to be the most interesting GM with the most boring team. Someone cook me up statistical measures of Team Boringness, Player Scrappiness and Influence on Others. Bonus points if you can use them on things other than baseball.

Awards
A.L. MVP
Vladimir Guerrero (he's Dominican, right? Where does the "Vladimir" come from?) unless the battle among and between the titans and dragons demands the medal. If that's the case I'll say it's Manny, Cano, M. Cabrera or Sizemore depending on how the teams fall. Who gets the MVP can be a little arbitrary, so it's kind of more fun just to predict who each team's best player will be.

A.L. Cy Young
Well there's Felix and Bedard. Wang will be good, but someone else will be better. Lackey's hurt to start the season, so he'd have to be a monster to win it (though if he leads an angel resurgence...). Fausto and C.C. will be in the mix, as will Josh Beckett and Roy Halladay. Of those four, I like Fausto Carmona and Halladay. I also think Matsuzaka has a shot to be significantly better this year- there may just be some magic we haven't seen- but it's more likely that he'll simply be a 7 on a scale from 1 to 10 (which will win plenty of games).
The pick: Francisco Liriano
The Twins will have enough offense to win him some games, and barring an injury, I bet he'll be freaky good.

Rookie of the Year
Evan Longoria, unless Clay Buckholtz happens to get a lot of good publicity for doing something (like hammering out some sensible legislation to address the "foreclosure crisis").

Also
At least three umpires will start blogs.

Playoffs
Who does get that wildcard? The second dragon, the second titan or the Mariners? For starters, not the Mariners. I say the Indians beat out the Yankees. Too much of the Yankees pitching will need to rely on fortune and veneer, and that won't quite do it in the A.L. these days. In that case,
The Indians beat the Red Sox (they'll win 3-1)
The Tigers beat the Angels (though in real life, the angels will save the tigers)
The Tigers beat the Indians (the Tigers' pitching will hold up enough, and you can't face the Sox then the Tigers without getting beat up some).

That leaves us with a Mets-Tigers World Series. Santana, Pedro, Maine/Perez vs. Verlander, Bonderman, Willis/Rodgers. Reyes, Wright, Beltran vs. Granderson, Cabrera, Ordonez. Randolph vs. Leyland. Duaner Sanchez beats Todd Jones. Mets in 7. Life is beautiful.

M.L.B. '08 Preview: National League

N.L. East
The Braves were finally dethroned two years ago, and the Mets collapsed last year, so this division feels more wide open than it has in a while. Going in, there are three teams playing for the division and two playing for respect.
1. The Mets
This is their year, I swear. Last year the '86 championship turned old enough to drink, and things got ugly in the wee hours. Lesson learned, story changed, Johan Santana rides in wearing blue and orange armor. Everything he does is different, but looks the same. Pedro earns his contract, even if he has to pull a Dumbledore (or a Snape).
2. The Braves
The Braves will be talented and respectable as they transition to a new generation. The most important pieces of their team were amazing players about eight years ago. Think about the year 2000, and the degree to which things then are the same as now. That's about how good the Braves will be this year.
3. The Phillies
There was truth in their amazing surge last year, but perhaps not a sustaining truth. That can happen when you have no pitching. Sub-prediction: '08 Jimmy Rollins will resemble '07 Jose Reyes more than '07 Rollins, and vice-versa for Reyes.
4. The Nationals
Manny Acta will make fake thug Milledge great and real thug Dukes good. On some days the Nationals will be scary to play. On other days they will look like thugs with sticks, helplessly confined within the rules of civility and baseball.
5. The Marlins
I'm not actually sure what exactly a marlin is, but I think it's related to the dolphin, and therefore an acquatic mammal. Despite this, some people call them the "fish." Recommended viewing for all: The Blue Planet- a fantastic BBC series hosted by David Attenborough. I don't know much about the Marlins other than that I could almost cover their payroll.

N.L. Central
This division breaks cleanly into thirds: two contenders, two almosts, two nopes.
1. The Cubs
I originally picked the Brewers, because I don't like picking mercenaries over home-growners if they're close talent-wise, but the Cubes lineup should be really good, the pitching (barely) good enough, and winning sunny games at Wrigley while Sweet Lou dances and flails can make any group of mercenaries feel like a team. After 99 years of being lovable losers, this team could use a few imported soldiers.
2. The Brewers
The aforementioned home-growners. Sub-prediction/hope: Prince Fielder has a really really good year and inspires people old and young to become vegetarrians and live more conscious lifestyles. If their pitching comes together they could definitely take the division.
3. The Reds
They have a shot of jumping groups from almosts to contenders. They could also slip back to the nopes. By the end of this year, people will be predicting them to do well next year.
4. The Cardinals
In recent seasons the Cardinals have been great, then good, then average (when they somehow became great for a month and won the world series), then bad with a serious mind-body disconnect (exemplified by the feud between their mad scientist manager, and brooding, now ex-third baseman). This year they'll be a little better than bad, but not quite good. The mind-body harmonics are improving, and they still have Albert Pujols. The beast may recover and rise again, but it'll take at least a couple of years.
5. The Astros
By trading for the Orioles' Miguel Tejada, the Astros officially became the new Orioles: the team that keeps themselves out of last place by overpaying for veterans with dubious futures. If a strange man in a dark coat offers you a bet on the Astros' lack of success over the next five years, take it! The city of Houston will need to take a collective look in the mirror sometime in that span. I don't know much about the place, yet I feel confident enough to say: Houston, you have a problem.
6. The Pirates
They just signed a talented man named Snell to a sensible deal. These are the things you look for in predicting a promising future. While Houston digs deeper and deeper, Pittsburgh builds something powerful and beautiful. As for this year, they'll lose a bunch of games, and trade Jason Bay to the Mets.

N.L. West
This is maybe the most open division in baseball, with four of the five teams having a pretty decent shot at winning it. My guess is that when the numbers are crunched, Arizona, L.A., San Diego and Colorado will combine to have a 110% chance of taking first place, with SanFran balancing things out by having a -10% shot. The statistical simulations will have to be updated to include the number/concept i.
1. The Diamondbacks
Lots to like here. Really good pitching, talented fiery youngsters in the lineup, and a diamondback is a kind of snake! Somehow these snakes feel disaster-proof- that is, bad stuff may happen, but for them it won't be a disaster. Not many teams you can say that about.
2. The Dodgers
For years, the Dodgers have been a team that I've always counted on from a distance to disappoint their fans. There may have been a time when I took pleasure in this- but now I just see it as something that happens- not necessarily good or bad. This year I expect some typical grumbling and drama, but I also expect them to be pretty good. Joe Torre will be good for the L.A. environment, so long as his nerves aren't too frayed from New York, and the team will play through his karmic reunion with Scott Proctor's arm.
3. The Padres
The Padres are always a pleasant team. They play in sunny Sandy Eggo. They seem to have nice players. Their bullpens are always really good. they have pitchers I'd like to see succeed. They even have Jim Edmonds now, and he seems like a great guy. Yeah, I like the Padres.
4. The Rockies
Who/what are the Rockies? I think they're still figuring that out, and I'm happy for them that they had a truly amazing three weeks last year before waking up in the path of the Red Sox juggernaut. They'll be good enough this year, but as the season wears on, those three weeks will feel more and more like a dream. I also have this weird feeling that Troy Tulowitski will get hurt and miss a lot of the season. I just glanced at their roster, and reading his name felt like reading one of those headlines that are never nice to see: Tulowitski injures knee, may miss 2-3 months. Good luck Rox.
5. The Giants
I love San Francisco, and this team has a couple of great young pitchers. The problem I see with the Giants, is that compared to just about every other team, they're not very good at baseball.

As for the awards:
N.L. MVP
In the conv: Wright, Beltran, Reyes, Chipper J, Fielder, Aramis, Braun, Weeks, Months, Drew/Upton (but not really either one individually), Teixiera, Andruw J. The West is so balanced it's hard to imagine one person rising above the rest. Paradigms are shifting, people! Since when is the West a place associated with balance? Now, that's when.
Who gets it: The firstbaseman of the wild card team. Hmmm... Tex or Fielder? Braves or Brewers? That has a lot more to do with each teams' starting pitching than those two (but that's how these things tend to be decided). Alright, I'll say the Dodgers hang around till the end, but get too beat up by their own division and fall short. The Brewers' bullpen falls apart, and the Braves surprise in a great race led by NL MVP: Mark Teixiera (who goes on to sign with the Yankees for 7 years, $134M).

Cy Young
Johan Santana!

Rookie of the Year
Cueto?

Random
Feel good story: Dukes/Milledge
Feel bad story: Zito/Vizquel
Feel pleasant story: The Padres
General trends: A better blending of youth and experience than we're used to seeing. Players talking even more about things like fielding practice and hitting the cutoff man, at least three teams invent their own dance.

Playoffs
Mets beat the Snakes
Cubes beat the Braves
Mets beat the Cubs with me in attendance.

Stay tuned for the A.L.

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Wipe your feet on the welcome mat. Here we'll be telling beautiful truths and beautiful lies about (mostly) the sports world. Enjoy.