M.L.B. '08 Preview: American League

Continuing with my shockingly accurate predictions for the upcoming baseball season, in this post I'll do the American League. This year in the American League, There Will Be Blood. Mostly metaphorical. There will be ferocious battles across the board. Teams that haven't spoken for a while will make themselves heard, and teams whose voices we know will speak in different ways. It should be fun.

The A.L. East
Barring a surprise or two, this is baseball's most talented division. The Yankees and Red Sox are titans, the Blue Jays are good enough to win the division if everything goes right for them, and the devilish Rays are feisty and on the rise.
1. The Red Sox
This may be the one team where you look at who they have, and you whisper "yikes." Theo Epstien is the current master of the big budget. Cashman has a chance to close the gap next offseason, but the Red Sox enter this year as the titan on top of the mountain.
2. The Yankees
The rival titan is also really good, but their pitching situation is a little bizarre, and that's asking for trouble. They really need at least one rookie starter to have a good year (by non-rookie standards) and they might need more than that. I think they'll get most of that, and they'll score bunches of runs, which always helps. No matter what they should be pretty entertaining. Sub-prediction: Joe Girardi has a coughing fit (or something similar) in the dugout (it's nothing serious).
3. The Blue Jays
These birds have put together a pretty good team, potentially good enough to knock down one of the titans, but they need a lot to go right, and they don't seem like the sort of team that invites everything to go right for them. That's the thing with these pretty good mercenary teams. Without that youthful buzz, it's hard to imagine them playing way above their heads for a stretch and rattling off 12 games in a row. With home growns who played together in the minors and haven't gotten over the thrill of being on a major league baseball field, they can all get on the same wavelength and collectively go berserk for a while (see the Rox and Phils of '07). For the Blue Jays to do that, they'll need a little more luck.

One solid divide between baseball analysts who are grounded in numbers, and ones who are supplemented by numbers is their opinion of "scrappy" players. Those players who lack elegance, but make up for it with hustle and heart. Grounder analysts point out the low OBP, and that they're defense is more animalistic than good. Flyer analysts talk about how they "energize the lineup" and "make everyone work." The grounders make fun of the flyers. The flyers sigh and look at the grounders like they majored in Soul Draining.

I can't deny that making outs kill innings, and getting on base creates runs. Any player who's not getting on base at a decent clip had better be making up for it with something else in a big way. The question: does inspiration of others cover the value gap? I say not over a long season, but there are moments where it's an undeniable influence. Someone puts in an exceptional amount of energy, and it ends up making a tangible difference-they beat out a grounder, they crash into something bordering the field, they trample the catcher- and others are inspired to try and match that commitment.

Ideally- perhaps this is obvious- a player should be both. The real legends are the ones with huge talent that show consistent physical commitment. Gretzky, Messier, Jordan, Bird, Tiger Woods (I'm talking team sports here, but I feel Tiger's good enough to mention), Mays, Rose, Jeter, many more. Those guys changed lots of games, and lots of lives.

Among the Blue Jays' mercenaries is the quintessential scrapper: shortstop David Eckstein. Some practically credit him (and Adam Wainwright's devastating curveball) with the Cardinals' '06 championship. The hope is that he can fire up these Blue Birds the way he did for the Red Birds and help them rise up the mountain to topple a titan or two. (Also among the mercenaries: Frank Thomas, now just a useful part, but once was the quintessential talent+work player. In his prime he was on another planet from everybody else.)

They're very talented, and if everyone stays healthy, they could be a force, but baseball seasons are long, and I don't see these guys being good enough for long enough. Eckstien will be his same old self, but blue doesn't respond to his fire the way red does, and enthusiasm has a synergistic effect with Tony La Russa, which amplified Eckstien's effect in St. Louis, but won't work as well in Toronto. Scrappiness will be good for them, but it will only affect them to a point.

It's too bad, because with the titans' young pitching still developing, this may be the Jays best chance in a while. There will be some really good free agents next year, and the Yankees will have millions of Andrew Jacksons that they will be willing to spend. It appears that the next team to topple one or both titans will be not be a bird but...
4. The Rays
Formerly the Devil Rays. They took the Devil out of their name and instituted a $1 fine for calling them the "Devil Rays." Personally I'm hoping to get fined- I could use the publicity. The Drays were laughable two years ago, and every year of their existence before that. This year they have a real shot to win more games than they lose, and I've heard people say that they'll contend late into the season (though the playoff predictions will probably have to wait until next year, and the playoffs themselves will have to wait until 2010). I think they'll be a fun team, but they'll lose to the Jays too many times, and they'll lose to the Red Sox a normal amount of times (Again: the Red Sox are really good). Yankees-Rays games look to be entertaining for a long time to come (and not just because they're currently mad at each other). Scott Kazmir, who still makes me wistful over what could have been had the Mets not GIVEN HIM AWAY, will have a long successful career of tormenting the Yankees (even if he's on them).
5. The Orioles
The long-overdue firesale finally happened. They still have to build a new house, but at least they finally got around to blowing up the old one. Postdiction (it can't be a prediction because it's about stuff that's already happened): Melvin Mora has stories that would blow your mind and freeze your blood. Maybe literally.

A.L. Central
The East has two titans. The Central has two dragons. Its equivalents of the Jays and Rays, the White Sox and Twins respectively, are not as good as their counterparts, and this may allow both dragons to reach the postseason (which would mean that one titan, probably the Yankees would miss the playoffs).
1. The Tigers
Dragon numero uno with a fire-breathing lineup. Some pitching depth questions, but everyone's got those. I also think Dontrelle is going to have a blast and be really good. He'll get hit around at points in the middle of the season when the A.L. gets used to his gangly jangly windup, but then he'll adjust and be good again. The pitching won't be as bad as it might be, and there will be days when it won't matter. No one will know for sure if there is actually more sunshine in Detroit or if it just feels that way.
2. The Indians
The second dragon, with less firepower but more precision. The maidens and knights in the Central will do their best, but most know it's hopeless. This dragon is very good, but there is a soft spot or two that a hobbit could find. They'll win a world series as soon as they change that stupid logo.
3. The White Sox
The White Knight gears up and gets ready to take his best hack. Hey, you don't know what will happen. They'll be good. They'll fight strong and true. Maybe they'll win 120 games. No matter what they'll have their valor. The White Knight might be able to occupy one dragon, but against two it has no shot. Still, it's nice that they're trying.
4. The Royals
I like the Royals. Joe Posnanski is somewhere between 85 to 100% responsible for this. I also like Brian Bannister. Brain is 50-100% responsible for that, and JoePo is 0-45%.
5. The Twins
Hey Minnesota. So, how's it going? Al Franken's interesting, isn't he? I just wanted to say thanks for Santana. I hope it wasn't weird for you. I bet Gomez and Guerra will both be really good, and I know you'll make good use of Humber and Mulvey. I thought the Young-Garza trade was win-win. People always talk about who "won" the trade, but they got needed good young pitching (the hottest commodity around) and you got a future superstar. Your team is a pitcher and a year or two away from being really good again. All best-
Owen P. (Mets fan, and friend of Minnesota)

While the White Knights dance and brandish wooden swords, another dragon is brewing.

A.L. West
The story is evolving all the time, but we can say with reasonable certainty that this division has two contenders and two nots and nothing else. The angels are a little broken and bruised and will need to heal up during the first half of the season. If they can come together soon enough, they should win, but the Mariners aren't joking around. This one should have good tension most or all of the year, especially if the Mariners sign Barry Bonds (do it!).
1. The Angels
They'll make it. I love the angels. They play an overt psychological game. They are aggressive, constantly challenging opponents to deliver. That's why they just can't help spending money on centerfielders. It'll be a good race, but I don't think they'll really have to worry unless the injuries get worse not better, or everything goes well for...
2. The Mariners
Looking at the Mariners is like eyeing the guys that form the group at the beginning of The Usual Suspects. They're definitely interesting. Could be quite powerful if they can all work together. It could shake out in a lot of different ways. Go all in. Sign Barry Bonds. You need each other. Even if you trade for Griffey (do it!) you still need Bonds. Your DH is friggin Jose Vidro. Even as a DH he could use some days off, and you'll be able to use that spot for Griffey (or Sexton, or whoever). You already payed an average starting pitcher like a king and traded your biggest young talent. Complete the trifecta by signing the current most contreversial figure in sports.
3. The Rangers
The bottom half of this division doesn't exactly hold my attention. This, and that of the N.L. Central look to be the two most boring bottom halfs of divisions... in a six team league... with three divisions of five.... The Rangers won't be particularly good, but it won't be a disappointment, and people will talk about their young players in good terms. They'll win about the same number of games as the Astros, be equally (ir)relevant, but be a little jollier doing it.
The A's
Basically the same deal as the Rangers, but filtered through the interesting character of Billy Beane. I wonder if he's subconsciously motivated by a desire to be the most interesting GM with the most boring team. Someone cook me up statistical measures of Team Boringness, Player Scrappiness and Influence on Others. Bonus points if you can use them on things other than baseball.

Awards
A.L. MVP
Vladimir Guerrero (he's Dominican, right? Where does the "Vladimir" come from?) unless the battle among and between the titans and dragons demands the medal. If that's the case I'll say it's Manny, Cano, M. Cabrera or Sizemore depending on how the teams fall. Who gets the MVP can be a little arbitrary, so it's kind of more fun just to predict who each team's best player will be.

A.L. Cy Young
Well there's Felix and Bedard. Wang will be good, but someone else will be better. Lackey's hurt to start the season, so he'd have to be a monster to win it (though if he leads an angel resurgence...). Fausto and C.C. will be in the mix, as will Josh Beckett and Roy Halladay. Of those four, I like Fausto Carmona and Halladay. I also think Matsuzaka has a shot to be significantly better this year- there may just be some magic we haven't seen- but it's more likely that he'll simply be a 7 on a scale from 1 to 10 (which will win plenty of games).
The pick: Francisco Liriano
The Twins will have enough offense to win him some games, and barring an injury, I bet he'll be freaky good.

Rookie of the Year
Evan Longoria, unless Clay Buckholtz happens to get a lot of good publicity for doing something (like hammering out some sensible legislation to address the "foreclosure crisis").

Also
At least three umpires will start blogs.

Playoffs
Who does get that wildcard? The second dragon, the second titan or the Mariners? For starters, not the Mariners. I say the Indians beat out the Yankees. Too much of the Yankees pitching will need to rely on fortune and veneer, and that won't quite do it in the A.L. these days. In that case,
The Indians beat the Red Sox (they'll win 3-1)
The Tigers beat the Angels (though in real life, the angels will save the tigers)
The Tigers beat the Indians (the Tigers' pitching will hold up enough, and you can't face the Sox then the Tigers without getting beat up some).

That leaves us with a Mets-Tigers World Series. Santana, Pedro, Maine/Perez vs. Verlander, Bonderman, Willis/Rodgers. Reyes, Wright, Beltran vs. Granderson, Cabrera, Ordonez. Randolph vs. Leyland. Duaner Sanchez beats Todd Jones. Mets in 7. Life is beautiful.