Blue Jays, Past Present and Future

The Blue Jays of my youth were blue saviors. It was 1991 and 2, and I, at times, was blue. My bizarre sense of humor* didn’t seem to catch the way it did in my earlier years, or perhaps it was merely the offense that is growing up. Through fourth grade I had known little but ups, and it had come time to learn about the occasional downs. Such is life. It’s quite beautiful really.

*I had a thought about my sense of humor the other day: what I really revel in are things that demonstrably don’t make sense to either the person on the receiving end of the information nor the one on the sending end. I thought this while wearing my Salzer Brother’s Mechanics shirt. I have no idea who the Salzer Brothers are, nor do I have any idea how I got that shirt. It was never my brother’s and none of my friends seemed to recognize it. As far as I was concerned, one day it simply showed up in my closet. That, to me, was the Pujols of shirt acquisition.

Speaking of Pujols, back to baseball. Actually I think Albert Pujols and I are around the same age (I’m 27) so he was about 10 at the time too. The Mets were terrible. They’d gone from laughable to not funny anymore. The Mets of glory that closed out the 80s had turned into Japan’s lost decade.

Through the telescope of the box scores printed in the New York Times Sports section, I saw a distant utopia. I saw John Olerud hitting .400 for half a season. I saw Roberto Alomar being a tremendously complete player. I saw Devon White playing a beautiful center field and a fantastic leadoff guy who would occasionally whack a home run. I saw Joe Carter as the aging hero, still good enough to hit cleanup. I saw Paul Molitor as another really good player who happened to play half his games in Toronto. I saw Juan Guzman and Pat Hentgen being very difficult to beat. I saw Ed Sprague being the only non-star in the lineup but still being, at least in my eyes, pleasantly solid. A poor man’s Scott Brosius perhaps (wait, what happened to Brosius? He was Brosius and then he was gone. Maybe he knew when to get out and he did.) In the Jays I had a nominal second favorite team that I could happily obsess over while mostly ignoring my nominal first favorite team. I was rewarded with two World Series. To me, neither ever seemed in doubt. That team was too good.

Now, in 2009, I look at the Blue Jays, as a team that up until last year, were always a very good team that could theoretically finish in second, or who knows, maybe even win the division, but realistically were very likely, and inevitably did end up in third behind momma bear and poppa bear. Now another one has grown up faster than them, and the Blue Jays are a very good team that could finish in third, or if things get really weird, maybe second, but realistically are very likely to finish fourth behind momma bear, poppa bear and Miley Ray Cyrus.

Not only are they losing the race, but some of the parts may be coming loose, damaged or old. I used to feel that Scott Rolen had the presence, calm and effectiveness of a large cat. He always seemed poised, in control, and he might, at any moment, choose to end you. Now he’s one of those guys who’s still good, but if I’m an opposing team, I’m secretly glad that they have him. Especially over a long season. Maybe it’s just me.

The Jays had a good core, but with some missing parts, and they made a stab at the whole acquiring high quality veteran players route in the hopes of toppling a giant. It had a sort of karmic backlash that seems to hit my Mets so frequently. Scott Rolen remembered that he gets hurt, and it knocks him out or messes with his bat speed and power and the like. Frank Thomas remembered that he was old and not on illegal enhancers. Lyle Overbay remembered that he’s not necessarily particularly good. David Eckstein remained as scrappy as Popeye. He didn’t forget to be mediocre offensively either.

I found it a little surreal when the Blue Jays rehired Cito Gaston to be their manager last year. He was the manager of the early 90s Jays. Maybe they were hoping he could bring a little of the old magic with him. It's halfway to hogwash, but there's something to be said for the muscle memory of winning. Knowing in your body that something can happen makes it more accessible. It's not a prerequisite, and you still have to be good, and even the losers get lucky sometimes, but mindset matters.

People say that the Blue Jays are just behind the other three talent-wise, and would be favored to win just about any other division, but they are where they are, and if it doesn't work out this year they need to think about starting over and looking more toward 2011 and 2012. They would have the best tradables on the market, and they could stop being a team that "should" finish higher, but never does. The clowns and the jokers have passed them, and one way or another the Toronto Blue Jays must figure out how to unstick themselves from the middle.

Relief

I am pleased that we got K-Rod and thrilled we got Putz.
I am neither pleased nor thrilled with their names. I kind of think K-Rod is a dumb nickname, but I can't stop using it. Francisco Rodriguez feels like a cumbersome title- as if I'm also using his middle name and an honorific. I'm not sure what my beef with "K-Rod" is. It's not really that bad. I just have odd mental rules about naming someone after what they do (the K is for strikeout). I think if we're calling him "strikeout-Rod" he ought to be freaky good at striking people out. Please hold while I capture some hard data on that with some of my internets.

In 2002, Mr. K recorded 17 regular season outs, 13 of which were strikeouts. That is absolutely worthy of the name K-Rod. Still, when Benny Agbayani made his major league debut, he whacked an absurd 10 home runs in 73 at bats, but no one coronated him "Benny Agbayhomerunny" or even "Ag-homer." A nickname like K-Rod needs to be earned. Last year Rodriguez struck out 10.14 batters per 9 innings, which is really good, but plenty (14) relievers were better. The two years before he was better with a 12.03 K/9 in '07 and 12.08 in '06, good enough for fifth both times.

I'd say K-Rod has been good enough to maintain his nickname, but if you were starting from scratch, you might give him a more conservative "F-Rod," which would be a good support base for the Mets' next up and coming potential star, F-Mart (Fernando Martinez). Now, K-Mart, if, for the sake of argument/ramblement, Rodriguez and Martinez were to swap last names, K-Mart I would be more lenient with, because of the accidental department store crossover.

As for our other big-name bullpen acquisition, Mr. J.J. Putz- love it. Love. It. For all the fliff-splashing the Bronxasaurus has been doing, I think the Putz trade might be the best move of the offseason. It makes the Mets bullpen go from passable to great. It means that K-Rod can be the capital c Closer while Putz can be used where he's needed most, sometimes getting outs more crucial to a win than the final 3, and that's good news, because from what I hear, Putz is the better pitcher.

It also means that at some point in the year, Putz will blunder and give up a lead, and the New York Post will print a picture on the back page of J.J. with his head hung, possibly with an opposing player circling the bases in the background, and the headline will read "What a Putz." This, like the economic slide and the end of the Long Count, is not a negotiable outcome. It is a certainty. A when, not an if. Why oh why does anyone read the New York Post.

D. Murphy,

The Mets have an exciting young second baseman with good plate discipline and power. This is good for my soul. I've been eating too much junk food, but tomorrow I might get a car, and if the Mets keep playing this guy, and he keeps doing well, and I drive my car to quality grocery stores, then both me and the Mets will have good plate discipline and power.

Central

Here I am, awash in North Carolina, soothing my nerves with reports about baseball and this and that. Soon we'll have VPs and conventions and debates. The world series will happen and then it won't matter and then we'll look back on it all and know more about what it all means. Bernie Mac died two days ago. Isaac Hayes died today or yesterday. Morgan Freeman got in a car accident. Keep breathing everyone. Notice your breath. Notice the sky. Be aware of bears and baseballs.

The A.L. Central is upside down. Of course, this statement defies reality. The A.L. Central is what it is. The Tigers are looking raggedy. Their hair is messed up. They are sleepy. Every once in a while they take down a bison and we all nod our heads and say "Yes, these are the tigers we know. The ones we have read about. The ones that will rise to the top of the mountain," but it seems that will not happen during this administration. If I were them I would donate $1000 for every homerun hit to tiger conservation, and players signed through at least next year should give the legal max to Obama.

The Indians are fools. They are more talented than any of us, but they insist on losing. Chief Wahoo laughs at all of them. He is the most foolish but he gets the joke. I'm really excited about the Watchmen movie coming out (next year I think). The Cleveland Indian franchise should make a human-sized Chief Wahoo and burn it in effigy at Burning Man. They should get on that. I think Burning Man is coming up soon.

The Royals can be good or bad. Joe Posnanski will be brilliant either way. Still, I feel it is time for them to be good. As the Japanese say, please try it.

The White Sox and Twins are defying gravity. That's why I thought the division was upside down. The state of this division is a stark reminder in the difficulties of telling the future. Is it safe to say that this team would be in great shape if it had Johan Santana? Would his coming departure be too much of a distraction. The Marlins and Twins occupy a similar mental category for me. Feisty young teams that I am just now coming to accept as contenders. The Rays, Marlins and Twins might all win their divisions this year. The times they are a-changin'. I would try to explain it to North Carolina, but I don't know if it would be worth the considerable effort.

One third review

So I take a break from blogging for a bit, thinking that the baseball world can right itself without me, and look what happens. The Rays, White Sox and Marlins are all still in first place. The Mets are playing more like a team that has a declining Delgado, a concussed Church, and Luis Castillo, then a team that has Wright, Reyes, Beltran and Santana. Do your thing Pedro.

Across the board, there are teams scrabbling with disappointment. Billy Beane once said that the first third of the season is for evaluating what you have, the second for getting what you need, the third for running and dancing. Something like that.

The Yankees are a game under .500. They'll rebound, but they have to accept that this might not be their year, and they were right to not give up the farm for Santana. They need to get healthy and play well. A contractual detox is on the way when Giambi et al come off the books at the end of the year. (Is Giambi done after this year?)

The A.L. Central needs to figure itself out. The Royals are bad. We get that. The two monsters are playing badly: The Indians are 24-29, but they've outscored their opponents. With little knowledge of their team, I'll say that they need to turn a minor leauger or another team's castoff into a bullpen monster. The Tigers don't look so hot. They need Jim Leyland to dance. They need a team dance. They need to get fans to do the dance without telling them to.

Seattle is done, AND they gave up the farm for Bedard. Oh well, I guess. They have some trade bait. They could trade Richie Sexson for a fish.

The Mets need magic. They're trying to win with bats and throws. The problem with the long season is that it can iron away all belief in magic. Maybe doing that at the beginning of this year will leave plenty of time in the latter half for belief. Two rays of hope: Pedro is coming back. I don't know if he'll stablize everything, but I do know that he is a magician. His magic takes a toll on his body, but just seeing the impossible things he does might wake up this team. The second one is that Edgardo Alfonzo is in the organization. This will mean little to nothing on the field, but karmically it's huge. At some point, the Mets need to find a wonderful young second baseman, start Alfonzo for a game, and then put the new guy in. Luis Castillo can be a useful bench player or someone else's player.

I'm not sure what my beef with Castillo is. I guess I'm just frustrated with how the Mets seem to think he's the same guy he was ten years ago. It makes me miss Fonzie all the more. Also, for the record, I always suspected Jeff Keppinger would be good.

Uncertain Times for Kyle Lohse

Among the more baffling things of last offseason was how things played out with Kyle Lohse. While the trade winds were blowing, multiple teams were thinking about offering him around $27M for 3 seasons. Maybe more when all was said and done. When the winds stopped, no one would take him for 1 year, $7M. Maybe less. That's pretty cheap starting pitcher depth for a number of contending teams. I still don't get it. He ended up a Cardinal on a one year contract for 4 and a quarter. Through six starts he's doing quite well.

Thus far he's 3-0 with a 2.36 ERA. That's not likely to last for a whole season, but it seems the alchemists Duncan and La Russa have turned him into a different pitcher. He's giving up a lot of hits, but not walking many, and his groundball ratio is way up. Hitters seem to have no trouble making contact off him, but they're not doing much damage. Through 34.1IP, he hasn't given up a single homer. A lot of people have looked like someone they're not over six starts, but Lohse is working with one of the best pitching coaches in the business, and it will be interesting to see how long and how well he can keep this up. Especially because if the Red Birds are serious about stealing the division, people like him are going to have to do things like what he's doing now.

Raw baseball

The wonderful Peter Gammons has a piece on how the crackdown on illegal muscle and attention enhancers has favored the players who are more naturally vivacious: the young ones. It's pretty dead-on, and it makes me nervous for the near-future of my Mets. Every year a few kids show up and change the entire look of a bullpen. Position players and starters can make a big enough splash to vault their team into the playoffs. I still have high hopes and expectations for the boys of Queens, but I think our unexpected farm help won't go much beyond a couple of good starts from the inevitably unexciting Nelson Figueroa.

Here's my long term solution for baseball: raw food.
I'm not joking at all. Here's why:
Do you know any raw foodists? There's something different about them. They have a palpable glow. They grin, laugh, hug. They never seem to get tired. That's what I find compelling, but from a baseball standpoint, the benefits are clear and tangible:
1) Increased energy. More than the muscle-building PEDs, with their often easy-to-point-to effects, I suspect amphetamines had the larger impact on the game. Everyone benefits from extra energy and focus. Baseball seasons are really long, and there are far more uninteresting at-bats than "big" ones. A little extra jazz in your step keeps you tuned in, and gives you more energy to work with.
The most commonly sited raw food benefit is abundant energy.

2) Better senses. Lasik eye surgery has been shown to increase batting averages. Makes plenty of sense- if you have better vision, you get a better look at pitch speed, type, spin, direction, etc. Committed raw foodies report better vision, hearing, taste, etc.

3) Faster injury recovery. When the body is not taxed by improper nutrition, it is better equipped to deal with upsets when they occur.

From a baseball perspecitve, a raw food diet is like amphetamines, Lasik and HGH rolled into one. The cost of raw food is an issue for some, but not for any baseball player. The main issue for them would be convenience. Going out to eat can make things difficult, and all the travel would complicate things. So yes, it would be something they'd have to commit to. Lots of people wouldn't get it and/or would make fun of them, these hypothetical raw-foodist big league baseball players. But wouldn't it be worth it? And wouldn't nutrition at its finest be a great thing for baseball to put on display?
Prince Fielder's a vegittarean. The times they are a-changin.

Mets v. Cubs: A Retrospective

Yesterday I managed to get out of the house, and found myself at Wrigley field to watch the Mets take on the Cubs. I had a good time, despite spending the game in a cloud of 6th graders, most of whom didn't seem aware that there was some sort of contest happening on a nearby field. I also didn't get the blues when the Mets walked away 8-1 losers. Here are some thoughts on the game, by position:

Mets pitchers: Nelson Figueroa, a brief feel-good story to distract us from the feel-bad story of Pedro and Duque's health- was exposed by the Cubs good lineup. He looked in control on the first go through the order, but my nervousness mounted in any inning after that. He was lucky to let in only 3- it could have been a lot more. Then, after Smith and Schoeneweis tag-teamed through the evening innings, Jorge Sosa was brought in to guide us to the night. Sosa stayed in way too long. By the time he was out, the game was effectively over, because he gave up a grand slam to Ronny Cedeno. Heilman warmed up, but didn't come in. Was Willie saving him for a game he thought the team might win?

First base: The Cubs ended up winning by 7, but 5 or 6 of those runs were allowed to happen because of close plays at first base, both of which could have been avoided with some good D. With two outs and the pitcher batting, the Mets, mostly Figueroa from my replayless look, botched an awkward tapper to first. The next batter knocked in two with a single. Later the Cubs were up 4-1 with the bases loaded and one out in the 8th. Groundball to Reyes at short, who gets the force at home. Catcher Casanova swings it to first, but the runner is barely safe (he may have even been out, but it was really close). That would have ended the inning, and had Reyes gone to 2nd instead of home, he probably would have gotten both. Instead, up came strutting Ronny, who gave it a good whack and heard the cheers.

Second base: I’ll be honest. I love Wright, Reyes and Beltran, but I miss Edgardo Alfonzo, John Olerud and Mike Piazza. I think, since the acquisition of Roberto Alomar, the Mets second base situation has not been right. We could use another corner guy who can smack the ball around, but what I would really love is the second coming of Alfonzo. He was the perfect 2. He played a great second base, he had average speed, he could handle the bat beautifully, and he hit for power. He made a lot of Met leadoff men look good as long as they could get on base some of the time. Hitting third was the wonderful stoic professional named John Olerud. My favorite Olerud story isn't a real story, just a moment in time described by the Times to start an article: John Olerud and Al Leiter taking a cab to Shea (though Olerud actually took the train a lot of the time). Leiter was his usual hyper self, verbosely explaining his plan for the first and second times through the lineup. I imagine Olerud, quietly, almost spookily engaged- like how I imagine Calvin Coolidge. While Leiter chatters and gesticulates, Olerud is simply there.

I read somewhere that the Mets had signed Edgardo Alfonzo to a minor league deal. I hope he starts at least one game for the professional ballclub this year. Maybe a whole series. It will be a healing ritual for the Mets second base situation.

Third base: David Wright is my favorite player. I haven’t had a real favorite baseball player in a while. I also love Reyes and Santana, but there’s just nothing not to like about Wright.

Outfield: The Mets offense, outside of the big 3, was exposed. With Ryan Church out of the lineup, and Delgado something of an unknown quantity at this point, the Mets lineup felt like three really dangerous hitters excessively cushioned by a bunch of guys who might hit a single. What it would take to get Jason Bay? What kind of contract is Boras going to try to get Texiera next season? F-Mart is really still a year or so away, right? Church, Delgado and Alou can all help, but question marks linger. The bottom of the lineup just doesn’t put a lot of pressure on opposing pitchers or punish them for taking them lightly. This makes the big 3 easier to handle.

The crowd: I have learned much about energy, especially human energy since the last time I went to a live baseball game. I could palpably feel the energy of the crowd, and I took a moment to channel it toward a cause or two that I deemed worthy. I don’t know if I did a lot, but I do feel confident that I did a little.

Hooray! The Mets are Good

Last night, there was a whole lot of good in the Met world. The more it happens, the easier it is for it to happen again the next time. Situational muscles can develop and atrophy just like will power and real muscles. Some nice truths got a workout last night. Among them:

1) They were good. Nothing succeeds like success. You gotta have heart, but you also gotta have pitch movement and bat speed. Winning tends to make teammates like each other more, and be more into the idea of fighting for each other.
2) Reyes was Reyes. Two singles, a double and a triple. When Reyes is good, he plays with a fire and a joy that bring out the same in others. Not only that, but he can really friggin play. When he's SupeReyes, he's on the short short list of best players in the game right up there with...
3) Wright was awesome. You can be sure of two things in life: The sun loves you, and David Wright will mash.
4) Exactly what we wanted to see from Pelfrey and Sanchez. Pelfrey wasn't perfect, but he didn't give up any runs either, and he had a great four inning stretch. I dream of John Maine II. Originally I thought the consistency of Santana and Maine would be a great support base for Perez and Pedro this year. That may shake out to be true in the summer, but right now it looks like Pelfrey is the #1 benefactor, and that's mega awesome. Oh and Duaner Sanchez pitched in a major league baseball game and didn't get hammered. Let's see more of that too.
5) The lineup switcheroo. Willie moved Ryan Church up to second between Reyes and Wright, and Luis Castillo down to 8th. I like this lineup better with someone with a little pop in the 2-spot. The second leadoff guy thing works best when it's an Edgar Renteria type who can hurt you on his own- someone you'd like to see in a number of situations. I'm still scratching my head over signing Castillo for four years. At this point in his career, he needs to sneak everywhere. Sneak on base, sneak to the next base. He doesn't have much "This is what I'm going to do, and you probably can't stop it." Not that he isn't useful, but he might as well be doing that from the 8th spot. The pitcher can bunt him over, Reyes can slap him in. Church backing up Delgado and Alou is okay, but having him bat second feels more dynamic. More playing to win than not to lose. I feel he could really help the team if put in the right situation.

Hope for more good things today.

Magic Maddux

ESPN the Magazine has a cool piece on Greg Maddux. Maddux has been written about a ton, but I did get a nugget or two that I hadn't heard before. The one that's stuck in my head: he some times changes pitches in the middle of his windup! He's not just being indecisive, he adjusts based on the batter's stance. Does anyone else do this? I realize not everyone can, but does anyone try? How many pitchers have even thought to?

Can we inject Maddux's pitching intelligence into every other pitcher and see what happens? How fun would a Maddux-Verlander hybrid be. Someone get on that.

Lord Stanley

It's a secret that no one tries to keep, much like professional hockey itself. Actually, we hockey fans say it every year, right around this time, but when we do, we're already talking about hockey, so you've probably stopped listening. Anyway, here it is: hockey has the best playoffs of any sport. I'm not here to prove it to you, and I won't even try too hard to convince you, but those of use who have been through a full marathon of the Stanley Cup playoffs know that there's nothing like it. With a few game 1s already done, I'll offer up a few thoughts on this year's tournament.

The East
1. Montreal Canadiens vs. 8. Boston Bruins
Montreal did something gutsy at the trade deadline. While most contenders were vying for a big name to add, the Canadiens traded their backup goaltender for a second round draft pick. For those of you who understand metaphors better than hockey, that's like trading all the eggs in your second basket, leaving you with one basket that looks really promising, but that you've never taken on a long journey before. That basket, Carey Price, is a rookie. He's been good, really good, so far, but now it's the playoffs, and all kinds of things can happen. If he rides the faith put in him, the Canadiens could go far. If he falters, they have no chance.

Running start for him and them: Habs in 5

2. Pittsburgh Penguins vs. 7. Ottawa Senators
For all of last year, and the start of this one, the Senators were the bullies of Canada. At present, they seem to have consolidated into a speed bump in the path of a herd of frolicking penguins. Those penguins are getting their first real taste of life among the big creatures. If they can stay united and keep their beaks sharp, they will do well. The goalie sitch seems to favor them, but if that turns, so could the series.

Probably not though: Pens in 6

3. Washington Capitals vs. 6. Philadelphia Flyers
Battle of the comeback kids. 3-6 matchups can be misleading because the Caps earned the 3 spot by winning their division, not by having the 3rd most points. Still, they have one utterly relentless Russian, a player who was the game's best some years ago, and a goalie, who up until the trade deadline was the backup for Montreal. Philly can bully, and has some sunshine in the future. They'll do their best to push Ovechkin around, but he's a kid in a candy store.

Caps in 7

4. New Jersey Devils vs. 5. New York Rangers
Oh man. I really can't separate my personal feelings from any analysis of this series. The Devils are my team. Martin Brodeur is my favorite player on any team in any sport. New Jersey is an exceptionally well run franchise, and that makes me happy. Late-ish in the season, the Devils were 1st in the East, at least for a day or two, and that also makes me happy.
But I just can't help thinking that this series belongs to the Devils' biggest rival. It just makes sense. The Rangers play in the biggest market, have imported and home-grown star power, and play in a building that is aching for success (and no, firing Isiah Thomas doesn't count as success... WHAT? THEY STILL HAVEN'T FIRED HIM?). The Devils are notorious for turning hockey into what one opposing coach once called a "chess match." Now I love chess and the Devils, but they do need a little more speed and scoring touch. Maybe a first round loss would be a kick in the pants for them. As for the Strangers, it's their time to channel their considerable talent into a playoff run. Something to get New York excited.
Still, I'd just love to see Brodeur steal this thing and go on another magical playoff run.

That's enough for now. Hockey's an acquired taste. Go out there and acquire it.

The Conversation

Tonight, while waiting for the Belmont bus to take me home, a man spoke to me unprovoked, as if we’d been speaking for a while. I had sized him up as I was walking over. The first thing I noticed was his Detroit Red Wings jacket. I considered starting a hockey conversation, but first I wanted to check if he was homeless. Well, homeless isn’t the word I’m looking for. I mean drunk, poor guy on the street who isn’t quite sure how to make sense to people. This wasn’t that kind of guy. He could have been drunk, I wasn’t sure, and he hadn’t shaved in a while, but, then, neither have I. His hands shook as he lit his cigarettes. It was a covered bus stop, and I leaned against a holographic car ad. I’m okay with cars having advertisements, though your average car ad is 98-100% imagery, 0-2% facts about the car. There aren’t too many types of cars… ok there are zillions of car types, but I imagine that when you’re buying a car, there are a limited, containable number of models that you seriously consider. Maybe it’s kind of like picking colleges. You select a few favorites and then hope that one accepts you.

I had no New Jersey Devils regalia or paraphernalia or anything that might have suggested I knew a thing about sports. I was wearing a slightly too small jacket, a purple sweatshirt, black cargo pants, brown shoes and a small beige backpack. The man turned to me and said, “The Blackhawks got eliminated tonight.” He had practically continued the conversation I imagined as I walked over where I started by asking if he was a Red Wings fan. He never actually said that he was, but he referred to the Wings as “us.” We talked about hockey until the bus came. As he payed to get on, he told the busdriver: “Blackhawks got eliminated tonight.” I really wonder what the busdriver thought that meant. I doubt it really registered. We talked about hockey on the bus, until he got off four blocks later.

I can’t always tell what to make of sports in our world. It’s a story generator that has nothing to do with anything else. Inevitably we find humanity within the system. We find truth in the way these humans follow the mental structure of the game. Stay on the green part, not the grey part. When this thing happens, run in a straight line to that pillow on the ground. Watch out for the others, but they’ll only get in your way under certain conditions. Quickly it turns into a language and stories, reports and poems are written with the cameras on and the crowd screaming. That’s what I wanted to say- that I can’t quite place my feelings about sports in this world, but it is definitely something larger than itself. Here this man was, and the only thing on his mind, the thing he wanted to tell everyone was that there was a violent ice dance on the other side of town.

If I Was Alex Rodriguez...

I'd be friggin terrified right now. And I might sacrifice a goat or two. It'd be annoying tabloid fodder, but probably worth it.

Day 1

Opening Day brings a mix of emotions. Excitement and clean happiness. I feel pleasantly American. Grass and mitts. Optimism is the rule.

Then a sigh as I gaze over the marathon before us. Baseball seasons are, first and foremost, long. They are a lot of other things, but the one things they are consistently is long. Starting one is like starting a really long novel. If you're going to get to the end, you're in it for the long haul. I wonder if Carlos Delgado will be good.

I read about the first game, Nationals 3, Braves 2, and I can't help finding too much meaning in it. Odalis Perez leaves after 5 innings and 70 pitches. Did Manny Acta want him to leave on a good note? Were his pitches losing their bite? Did Acta want to get more pitchers in to soak up the opening day excitement? Will anyone take this team seriously when their opening day starter is Odalis Perez? I don't have as many questions about the Braves, because I'm confident that they're offense is better than this. I know about them, so I can ignore an isolated game. The Nationals, though- what's their deal? Uncertainties in my mind cling to whatever info I give them.

Tomorrow my boys will play, and the left side of their infield can go 0 for 10 and I won't worry too much, but if the less talented right side does the same, I might bite a nail or two. Why did we give Luis Castillo four years? If a younger, better, 2b comes along, Omar won't hesitate, will he? We need someone who can break the curse of Edgardo Alfonzo.

I'm getting ahead of myself. We'll have more time to talk about all that, and a few more at bats to work with. For now, it's just nice to know that there's a wacky offseason behind us, and a long haul in front.

Mets' Rotation

Today I'll take a peak at the Mets' starters. I used '08 projections for some numerical grounding, but these stories could go in a lot of different directions. The tables come from Marcel the Monkey via baseballmusings.com.

First the Mets:

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Johan Santana	193	71	3.31
Pedro Martinez	87	38	3.93
John Maine	163	73	4.03
Oliver Perez	160	80	4.50
Orlando Hernandez	148	74	4.50
Totals	751	336	4.03

Santana looks a little conservative here. Those are fine numbers, but we're talking about possibly the best pitcher around moving to a pitcher's park in a pitcher's league (and he can hit!). He could be a real monster. Hard to know what to make of Pedro. If he's healthy he's a magician, and he could outperform those numbers by a lot. He could also go 2-2 with 50 innings and no one would act surprised. That's the thing with projecting Pedro: it divides us into cynics, optimists and uncertaintists. I know where my loyalties lie- Pedro '08: 16-8, 149 IP, 3.76 ERA.

Some are predicting that Maine will go from solid citizen to star. He's in a good spot to try it behind Johan and Pedro. As for Enigma Perpetual, he's a Boras client in his walk year on a contending team, so he should be motivated. The Mets' 1 and 3 are dependable with the potential to find the upper range of their possibilities. 2 and 4, are less predicatable, each with the potential for greatness or frustration.

In the fifth spot are two sides of a strange coin.

There's Mike Pelfrey, age 24, plenty of potential, has a great fastball, but needs to develop his other pitches.
On the flipside is El Duque, age unknown, this may be his last season, rarely breaks the low 80s on the radar gun, but almost never throws the same pitch twice.

If only we could combine them.

M.L.B. '08 Preview: American League

Continuing with my shockingly accurate predictions for the upcoming baseball season, in this post I'll do the American League. This year in the American League, There Will Be Blood. Mostly metaphorical. There will be ferocious battles across the board. Teams that haven't spoken for a while will make themselves heard, and teams whose voices we know will speak in different ways. It should be fun.

The A.L. East
Barring a surprise or two, this is baseball's most talented division. The Yankees and Red Sox are titans, the Blue Jays are good enough to win the division if everything goes right for them, and the devilish Rays are feisty and on the rise.
1. The Red Sox
This may be the one team where you look at who they have, and you whisper "yikes." Theo Epstien is the current master of the big budget. Cashman has a chance to close the gap next offseason, but the Red Sox enter this year as the titan on top of the mountain.
2. The Yankees
The rival titan is also really good, but their pitching situation is a little bizarre, and that's asking for trouble. They really need at least one rookie starter to have a good year (by non-rookie standards) and they might need more than that. I think they'll get most of that, and they'll score bunches of runs, which always helps. No matter what they should be pretty entertaining. Sub-prediction: Joe Girardi has a coughing fit (or something similar) in the dugout (it's nothing serious).
3. The Blue Jays
These birds have put together a pretty good team, potentially good enough to knock down one of the titans, but they need a lot to go right, and they don't seem like the sort of team that invites everything to go right for them. That's the thing with these pretty good mercenary teams. Without that youthful buzz, it's hard to imagine them playing way above their heads for a stretch and rattling off 12 games in a row. With home growns who played together in the minors and haven't gotten over the thrill of being on a major league baseball field, they can all get on the same wavelength and collectively go berserk for a while (see the Rox and Phils of '07). For the Blue Jays to do that, they'll need a little more luck.

One solid divide between baseball analysts who are grounded in numbers, and ones who are supplemented by numbers is their opinion of "scrappy" players. Those players who lack elegance, but make up for it with hustle and heart. Grounder analysts point out the low OBP, and that they're defense is more animalistic than good. Flyer analysts talk about how they "energize the lineup" and "make everyone work." The grounders make fun of the flyers. The flyers sigh and look at the grounders like they majored in Soul Draining.

I can't deny that making outs kill innings, and getting on base creates runs. Any player who's not getting on base at a decent clip had better be making up for it with something else in a big way. The question: does inspiration of others cover the value gap? I say not over a long season, but there are moments where it's an undeniable influence. Someone puts in an exceptional amount of energy, and it ends up making a tangible difference-they beat out a grounder, they crash into something bordering the field, they trample the catcher- and others are inspired to try and match that commitment.

Ideally- perhaps this is obvious- a player should be both. The real legends are the ones with huge talent that show consistent physical commitment. Gretzky, Messier, Jordan, Bird, Tiger Woods (I'm talking team sports here, but I feel Tiger's good enough to mention), Mays, Rose, Jeter, many more. Those guys changed lots of games, and lots of lives.

Among the Blue Jays' mercenaries is the quintessential scrapper: shortstop David Eckstein. Some practically credit him (and Adam Wainwright's devastating curveball) with the Cardinals' '06 championship. The hope is that he can fire up these Blue Birds the way he did for the Red Birds and help them rise up the mountain to topple a titan or two. (Also among the mercenaries: Frank Thomas, now just a useful part, but once was the quintessential talent+work player. In his prime he was on another planet from everybody else.)

They're very talented, and if everyone stays healthy, they could be a force, but baseball seasons are long, and I don't see these guys being good enough for long enough. Eckstien will be his same old self, but blue doesn't respond to his fire the way red does, and enthusiasm has a synergistic effect with Tony La Russa, which amplified Eckstien's effect in St. Louis, but won't work as well in Toronto. Scrappiness will be good for them, but it will only affect them to a point.

It's too bad, because with the titans' young pitching still developing, this may be the Jays best chance in a while. There will be some really good free agents next year, and the Yankees will have millions of Andrew Jacksons that they will be willing to spend. It appears that the next team to topple one or both titans will be not be a bird but...
4. The Rays
Formerly the Devil Rays. They took the Devil out of their name and instituted a $1 fine for calling them the "Devil Rays." Personally I'm hoping to get fined- I could use the publicity. The Drays were laughable two years ago, and every year of their existence before that. This year they have a real shot to win more games than they lose, and I've heard people say that they'll contend late into the season (though the playoff predictions will probably have to wait until next year, and the playoffs themselves will have to wait until 2010). I think they'll be a fun team, but they'll lose to the Jays too many times, and they'll lose to the Red Sox a normal amount of times (Again: the Red Sox are really good). Yankees-Rays games look to be entertaining for a long time to come (and not just because they're currently mad at each other). Scott Kazmir, who still makes me wistful over what could have been had the Mets not GIVEN HIM AWAY, will have a long successful career of tormenting the Yankees (even if he's on them).
5. The Orioles
The long-overdue firesale finally happened. They still have to build a new house, but at least they finally got around to blowing up the old one. Postdiction (it can't be a prediction because it's about stuff that's already happened): Melvin Mora has stories that would blow your mind and freeze your blood. Maybe literally.

A.L. Central
The East has two titans. The Central has two dragons. Its equivalents of the Jays and Rays, the White Sox and Twins respectively, are not as good as their counterparts, and this may allow both dragons to reach the postseason (which would mean that one titan, probably the Yankees would miss the playoffs).
1. The Tigers
Dragon numero uno with a fire-breathing lineup. Some pitching depth questions, but everyone's got those. I also think Dontrelle is going to have a blast and be really good. He'll get hit around at points in the middle of the season when the A.L. gets used to his gangly jangly windup, but then he'll adjust and be good again. The pitching won't be as bad as it might be, and there will be days when it won't matter. No one will know for sure if there is actually more sunshine in Detroit or if it just feels that way.
2. The Indians
The second dragon, with less firepower but more precision. The maidens and knights in the Central will do their best, but most know it's hopeless. This dragon is very good, but there is a soft spot or two that a hobbit could find. They'll win a world series as soon as they change that stupid logo.
3. The White Sox
The White Knight gears up and gets ready to take his best hack. Hey, you don't know what will happen. They'll be good. They'll fight strong and true. Maybe they'll win 120 games. No matter what they'll have their valor. The White Knight might be able to occupy one dragon, but against two it has no shot. Still, it's nice that they're trying.
4. The Royals
I like the Royals. Joe Posnanski is somewhere between 85 to 100% responsible for this. I also like Brian Bannister. Brain is 50-100% responsible for that, and JoePo is 0-45%.
5. The Twins
Hey Minnesota. So, how's it going? Al Franken's interesting, isn't he? I just wanted to say thanks for Santana. I hope it wasn't weird for you. I bet Gomez and Guerra will both be really good, and I know you'll make good use of Humber and Mulvey. I thought the Young-Garza trade was win-win. People always talk about who "won" the trade, but they got needed good young pitching (the hottest commodity around) and you got a future superstar. Your team is a pitcher and a year or two away from being really good again. All best-
Owen P. (Mets fan, and friend of Minnesota)

While the White Knights dance and brandish wooden swords, another dragon is brewing.

A.L. West
The story is evolving all the time, but we can say with reasonable certainty that this division has two contenders and two nots and nothing else. The angels are a little broken and bruised and will need to heal up during the first half of the season. If they can come together soon enough, they should win, but the Mariners aren't joking around. This one should have good tension most or all of the year, especially if the Mariners sign Barry Bonds (do it!).
1. The Angels
They'll make it. I love the angels. They play an overt psychological game. They are aggressive, constantly challenging opponents to deliver. That's why they just can't help spending money on centerfielders. It'll be a good race, but I don't think they'll really have to worry unless the injuries get worse not better, or everything goes well for...
2. The Mariners
Looking at the Mariners is like eyeing the guys that form the group at the beginning of The Usual Suspects. They're definitely interesting. Could be quite powerful if they can all work together. It could shake out in a lot of different ways. Go all in. Sign Barry Bonds. You need each other. Even if you trade for Griffey (do it!) you still need Bonds. Your DH is friggin Jose Vidro. Even as a DH he could use some days off, and you'll be able to use that spot for Griffey (or Sexton, or whoever). You already payed an average starting pitcher like a king and traded your biggest young talent. Complete the trifecta by signing the current most contreversial figure in sports.
3. The Rangers
The bottom half of this division doesn't exactly hold my attention. This, and that of the N.L. Central look to be the two most boring bottom halfs of divisions... in a six team league... with three divisions of five.... The Rangers won't be particularly good, but it won't be a disappointment, and people will talk about their young players in good terms. They'll win about the same number of games as the Astros, be equally (ir)relevant, but be a little jollier doing it.
The A's
Basically the same deal as the Rangers, but filtered through the interesting character of Billy Beane. I wonder if he's subconsciously motivated by a desire to be the most interesting GM with the most boring team. Someone cook me up statistical measures of Team Boringness, Player Scrappiness and Influence on Others. Bonus points if you can use them on things other than baseball.

Awards
A.L. MVP
Vladimir Guerrero (he's Dominican, right? Where does the "Vladimir" come from?) unless the battle among and between the titans and dragons demands the medal. If that's the case I'll say it's Manny, Cano, M. Cabrera or Sizemore depending on how the teams fall. Who gets the MVP can be a little arbitrary, so it's kind of more fun just to predict who each team's best player will be.

A.L. Cy Young
Well there's Felix and Bedard. Wang will be good, but someone else will be better. Lackey's hurt to start the season, so he'd have to be a monster to win it (though if he leads an angel resurgence...). Fausto and C.C. will be in the mix, as will Josh Beckett and Roy Halladay. Of those four, I like Fausto Carmona and Halladay. I also think Matsuzaka has a shot to be significantly better this year- there may just be some magic we haven't seen- but it's more likely that he'll simply be a 7 on a scale from 1 to 10 (which will win plenty of games).
The pick: Francisco Liriano
The Twins will have enough offense to win him some games, and barring an injury, I bet he'll be freaky good.

Rookie of the Year
Evan Longoria, unless Clay Buckholtz happens to get a lot of good publicity for doing something (like hammering out some sensible legislation to address the "foreclosure crisis").

Also
At least three umpires will start blogs.

Playoffs
Who does get that wildcard? The second dragon, the second titan or the Mariners? For starters, not the Mariners. I say the Indians beat out the Yankees. Too much of the Yankees pitching will need to rely on fortune and veneer, and that won't quite do it in the A.L. these days. In that case,
The Indians beat the Red Sox (they'll win 3-1)
The Tigers beat the Angels (though in real life, the angels will save the tigers)
The Tigers beat the Indians (the Tigers' pitching will hold up enough, and you can't face the Sox then the Tigers without getting beat up some).

That leaves us with a Mets-Tigers World Series. Santana, Pedro, Maine/Perez vs. Verlander, Bonderman, Willis/Rodgers. Reyes, Wright, Beltran vs. Granderson, Cabrera, Ordonez. Randolph vs. Leyland. Duaner Sanchez beats Todd Jones. Mets in 7. Life is beautiful.

M.L.B. '08 Preview: National League

N.L. East
The Braves were finally dethroned two years ago, and the Mets collapsed last year, so this division feels more wide open than it has in a while. Going in, there are three teams playing for the division and two playing for respect.
1. The Mets
This is their year, I swear. Last year the '86 championship turned old enough to drink, and things got ugly in the wee hours. Lesson learned, story changed, Johan Santana rides in wearing blue and orange armor. Everything he does is different, but looks the same. Pedro earns his contract, even if he has to pull a Dumbledore (or a Snape).
2. The Braves
The Braves will be talented and respectable as they transition to a new generation. The most important pieces of their team were amazing players about eight years ago. Think about the year 2000, and the degree to which things then are the same as now. That's about how good the Braves will be this year.
3. The Phillies
There was truth in their amazing surge last year, but perhaps not a sustaining truth. That can happen when you have no pitching. Sub-prediction: '08 Jimmy Rollins will resemble '07 Jose Reyes more than '07 Rollins, and vice-versa for Reyes.
4. The Nationals
Manny Acta will make fake thug Milledge great and real thug Dukes good. On some days the Nationals will be scary to play. On other days they will look like thugs with sticks, helplessly confined within the rules of civility and baseball.
5. The Marlins
I'm not actually sure what exactly a marlin is, but I think it's related to the dolphin, and therefore an acquatic mammal. Despite this, some people call them the "fish." Recommended viewing for all: The Blue Planet- a fantastic BBC series hosted by David Attenborough. I don't know much about the Marlins other than that I could almost cover their payroll.

N.L. Central
This division breaks cleanly into thirds: two contenders, two almosts, two nopes.
1. The Cubs
I originally picked the Brewers, because I don't like picking mercenaries over home-growners if they're close talent-wise, but the Cubes lineup should be really good, the pitching (barely) good enough, and winning sunny games at Wrigley while Sweet Lou dances and flails can make any group of mercenaries feel like a team. After 99 years of being lovable losers, this team could use a few imported soldiers.
2. The Brewers
The aforementioned home-growners. Sub-prediction/hope: Prince Fielder has a really really good year and inspires people old and young to become vegetarrians and live more conscious lifestyles. If their pitching comes together they could definitely take the division.
3. The Reds
They have a shot of jumping groups from almosts to contenders. They could also slip back to the nopes. By the end of this year, people will be predicting them to do well next year.
4. The Cardinals
In recent seasons the Cardinals have been great, then good, then average (when they somehow became great for a month and won the world series), then bad with a serious mind-body disconnect (exemplified by the feud between their mad scientist manager, and brooding, now ex-third baseman). This year they'll be a little better than bad, but not quite good. The mind-body harmonics are improving, and they still have Albert Pujols. The beast may recover and rise again, but it'll take at least a couple of years.
5. The Astros
By trading for the Orioles' Miguel Tejada, the Astros officially became the new Orioles: the team that keeps themselves out of last place by overpaying for veterans with dubious futures. If a strange man in a dark coat offers you a bet on the Astros' lack of success over the next five years, take it! The city of Houston will need to take a collective look in the mirror sometime in that span. I don't know much about the place, yet I feel confident enough to say: Houston, you have a problem.
6. The Pirates
They just signed a talented man named Snell to a sensible deal. These are the things you look for in predicting a promising future. While Houston digs deeper and deeper, Pittsburgh builds something powerful and beautiful. As for this year, they'll lose a bunch of games, and trade Jason Bay to the Mets.

N.L. West
This is maybe the most open division in baseball, with four of the five teams having a pretty decent shot at winning it. My guess is that when the numbers are crunched, Arizona, L.A., San Diego and Colorado will combine to have a 110% chance of taking first place, with SanFran balancing things out by having a -10% shot. The statistical simulations will have to be updated to include the number/concept i.
1. The Diamondbacks
Lots to like here. Really good pitching, talented fiery youngsters in the lineup, and a diamondback is a kind of snake! Somehow these snakes feel disaster-proof- that is, bad stuff may happen, but for them it won't be a disaster. Not many teams you can say that about.
2. The Dodgers
For years, the Dodgers have been a team that I've always counted on from a distance to disappoint their fans. There may have been a time when I took pleasure in this- but now I just see it as something that happens- not necessarily good or bad. This year I expect some typical grumbling and drama, but I also expect them to be pretty good. Joe Torre will be good for the L.A. environment, so long as his nerves aren't too frayed from New York, and the team will play through his karmic reunion with Scott Proctor's arm.
3. The Padres
The Padres are always a pleasant team. They play in sunny Sandy Eggo. They seem to have nice players. Their bullpens are always really good. they have pitchers I'd like to see succeed. They even have Jim Edmonds now, and he seems like a great guy. Yeah, I like the Padres.
4. The Rockies
Who/what are the Rockies? I think they're still figuring that out, and I'm happy for them that they had a truly amazing three weeks last year before waking up in the path of the Red Sox juggernaut. They'll be good enough this year, but as the season wears on, those three weeks will feel more and more like a dream. I also have this weird feeling that Troy Tulowitski will get hurt and miss a lot of the season. I just glanced at their roster, and reading his name felt like reading one of those headlines that are never nice to see: Tulowitski injures knee, may miss 2-3 months. Good luck Rox.
5. The Giants
I love San Francisco, and this team has a couple of great young pitchers. The problem I see with the Giants, is that compared to just about every other team, they're not very good at baseball.

As for the awards:
N.L. MVP
In the conv: Wright, Beltran, Reyes, Chipper J, Fielder, Aramis, Braun, Weeks, Months, Drew/Upton (but not really either one individually), Teixiera, Andruw J. The West is so balanced it's hard to imagine one person rising above the rest. Paradigms are shifting, people! Since when is the West a place associated with balance? Now, that's when.
Who gets it: The firstbaseman of the wild card team. Hmmm... Tex or Fielder? Braves or Brewers? That has a lot more to do with each teams' starting pitching than those two (but that's how these things tend to be decided). Alright, I'll say the Dodgers hang around till the end, but get too beat up by their own division and fall short. The Brewers' bullpen falls apart, and the Braves surprise in a great race led by NL MVP: Mark Teixiera (who goes on to sign with the Yankees for 7 years, $134M).

Cy Young
Johan Santana!

Rookie of the Year
Cueto?

Random
Feel good story: Dukes/Milledge
Feel bad story: Zito/Vizquel
Feel pleasant story: The Padres
General trends: A better blending of youth and experience than we're used to seeing. Players talking even more about things like fielding practice and hitting the cutoff man, at least three teams invent their own dance.

Playoffs
Mets beat the Snakes
Cubes beat the Braves
Mets beat the Cubs with me in attendance.

Stay tuned for the A.L.

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